Daily Market Wire 8 May 2023

Lachstock Consulting, May 8, 2023

Canola, rapeseed and wheat gains mostly exceeded 2 percent. Australian dollars gained 1pc and Brent crude futures gained 4pc.

  • Chicago wheat December 2023 contract up US13.5 cents per bushel to 687.25c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December 2023 contract up 29.5c/bu  to 821.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December 2023 up 21.75c/bu to 844c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December 2023 up €4.50/t to €247.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December 2023 down US$1/t to $278.75/t;
  • Corn July 2023 contract up 7.5c/bu to 596.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July 2023 contract up 18.75c/bu to 1436.5c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola July 2023 contract up C$20/t to $735.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed August 2023 contract up €10.50/t to €448.50/t;
  • ASX January 2024 wheat contract up A$4/t to $387/t;
  • ASX January 2024 barley contract unchanged at A$317.80/t;
  • AUD dollar gained 57 points to US$0.6750


The Joint Coordination Centre did not reach an agreement on Friday to authorise new vessels to participate in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Farhan Haq, a spokesperson for the UN secretary-general, said at a daily press briefing. He said JCC was continuing its daily inspection work on previously authorised vessels. 

President Putin has not yet responded to proposals from UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on the Black Sea Grain Initiative, Russian newsagency TASS reported, quoting Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Reuters reported that the pace of shipments from Ukraine via the Black Sea Grain Initiative has slowed amid concerns shipments could be stalled if a deal is not renewed, citing sources and shipping data. The number of ships coming in to pick up cargoes dropped last week to two vessels per day from an average of three to four ships. Danish shipping group NORDEN is among companies not sending ships into the region. “We are not participating in that trade at the moment… It is a risky area – it is very hard to predict what will happen,” NORDEN’s Chief Executive Jan Rindbo told Reuters. There are currently 107 forward grain orders for ships in the market, with 94 for May and only a few orders for the forward months, Shipfix data showed. Insurance for ships going into the grain corridor has remained stable for now. 

There is real concern about the state of US winter wheat crops and the lack of planting progress for spring crops. Continuing dryness in the Canadian Prairies is also starting to gain more attention.
French national establishment for agriculture and sea products FranceAgriMer reported at 1 May the French 2023-24 common wheat crop was rated 93pc good/excellent (94pc previous week, 89pc previous year), winter barley at 92pc (91pc, 86pc), spring barley at 94pc (94pc, 88pc). Maize planting was at 59pc complete compared to 81pc at the same time last year, and the 5-year average of 75pc.

FAO forecast world wheat production in 2023 at 785Mt. Harvest prospects are rising in the EU due to substantial April rain in most nations, raising the wheat crop outlook to 139.5Mt. Drought in Spain and Portugal is curbing crops there. Turkey’s wheat crop outlook was cut “moderately” because of earthquake damage to infrastructure and equipment. Drought is also impacting yields in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia expect below average harvests. Pakistan’s wheat crop was downgraded “marginally” on constrained access to farm inputs. 

Tunisia is reportedly seeking 100,000t durum and 75,000t feed barley from optional origins, for Jun/Jul shipment.


Most local markets closed Friday slightly higher. It was a good recovery after some flat price pressure from the $A rally mid-week. A lack of liquidity continues to be the theme, particularly through NSW. We are starting to see the drawing arc for Qld feed grain extending as far south as Parkes in some instances. 

ABS data shows that Australia exported a record 3.78Mt of wheat in March easily beating the previous monthly record of 3.25Mt set in January. China took 1.13Mt, Vietnam 387kt and Indonesia took 330kt. 

The 8-day forecast is looking relatively dry, with less than 5mm on the radar for most winter cropping regions, after some decent totals were received last week across parts of WA, SA, Vic and southern NSW.

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