Markets

Daily Market Wire 8 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 8, 2022

French rapeseed closed 2pc lower, otherwise Monday night’s commodity markets and macros saw mixed and mostly small moves.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US2 cents per bushel to 845.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 4c/bu at 957.25c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 5.75c/bu to 960.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €3.25/t to €336/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract unchanged at US$317.50/t;
  • Corn December contract down 5.25c/bu to 675.75c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 11c/bu to 1458c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$1.30/t to $894/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €16/t to  €648.75/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract down $A3/t to $483.50/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract down A$10/t to $340/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.648.

International

Black Sea Grain Initiative vessel inspections reportedly sped up dramatically for a couple of days last week after Russia suspended participation, pulling out its own inspectors but have slowed again since their return. Only two outbound cargoes over the weekend were cleared in Istanbul, where they are required to be checked, with others being halted for fumigation issues and “various grounds,” the JCC said. That compares with more than 80 outbound cargoes that cleared last Monday and Tuesday. 

It remains unclear if the crop corridor will be extended beyond 19 November. Inbound vessels continue to head into Ukraine, the JCC said, meaning more exports are likely in coming days. 

Egypt plans to buy 1.5 million tonnes of imported wheat through April 2023, the beginning of local wheat purchasing season, Supply Minister Aly El-Moselhy says after yesterday’s wheat tender was cancelled. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported cumulative grain exports since July 1 at 14.3Mt, down 31pc from last year’s 20.6Mt. Totals included 5.4Mt wheat, 7.7Mt corn, and 1.2Mt barley. 

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange reports that as at 4 Nov, 2022-23 soybean plantings in the central farm belt are only 5pc complete (50pc previous year), with operations hampered by extremely dry weather. Total area forecast at 17.0Mha (16.1Mha). Weather forecasts for the first two weeks of the month were not encouraging and, while rains in recent weeks helped improve reserves in some areas, they had not made enough of an impact. 

European crop analyst Stratégie Grains reports that high prices and broadly favourable seeding conditions will likely see 2023-24 rapeseed plantings increase to 6.0Mha (+2pc y/y). The largest increases are expected in Western Europe, although some pest issues in France, tied to unusually warm autumn weather, require further monitoring.
Chinese customs data reveal that October soybean imports were 4.1Mt (-19pc on same month of previous year), bringing cumulative 2022 (Jan/Dec) arrivals to 73.2Mt (-7pc on same period of previous year).

Australia

Local markets started off the week mixed. The ASX eastern wheat January contract settled $3/t lower at $485.50/t. East coast APW1 was $10/mt higher while West coast APW1 was unchanged at $458/t. 

Growers are being urged by the Grains Research and Development Corporation to take extra precautions before and during crop harvesting on wet paddocks this year. Exceptional rainfall across southern and eastern Australia means many growers will be faced with harvesting crops in very wet conditions. Harvest is likely to be a long, drawn-out process that will present a range of physical and mental challenges for growers and harvest workers. 

Cotton Australia is still expecting a large national cotton crop despite excessively wet conditions over the main growing areas in New South Wales and Queensland. However it expects severe reductions in area planted and bales picked in regions with narrow planting windows and where there has been sustained and significant flooding

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