Markets

Daily Market Wire 8 October 2020

Lachstock Consulting, October 8, 2020

US markets strengthened.

  • Chicago wheat December contract up US14.75 cents per bushel to 607.5c;
  • Kansas wheat December contract up 10.25c/bu to 544.5c;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract up 11c/bu to 549.25c;
  • MATIF wheat December contract up €0.5 per tonne to €200.50;
  • Corn December contract up 3.75c/bu to 388.75c;
  • Soybeans November contract up 7c/bu 1051c;
  • Winnipeg canola November unchanged at C$525.40;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract down €1.50/t to €391;
  • Brent crude November contract down US$0.66 per barrel to $41.99;
  • Dow Jones index up 531 points to 28,303;
  • AUD firmer at $0.713;
  • CAD firmer at $1.326;
  • EUR firmer at $1.177.

International

  • Markets were again firmer, weather in Russia and the Southern Plains of the US remaining front and centre, along with pre-WASDE report positioning for Friday.
  • Export sales of 132,000t of soybeans for delivery to China were reported today, along with 120,000t of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations.
  • Spot wheat closed above $6/bu and corn north of $4/bu in the deferred months.
  • Markets were supported further today by the continued appetite among managed money funds.  The market will be watching very closely to see if the USDA can offer fresh bullish data to keep feeding the bull.
  • The Russian story won’t go away.  Many traders are looking to the 2015 year as an analogue for rainfall, a year that had a mild spring and a year that would see a similar type of percentage versus trend on a 28mha plant put us in the 75 million-tonnes-type production realm.  There is no concern for the spring crop obviously at this time of the year, but the market is very occupied with what dry weather now and final yields might be.  Farmers continue to plant in Russia so it’s all about yield expectations today.
  • Grain export sales by the US this week are expected to be slightly smaller than previous weeks, according to grain traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. Corn export sales are estimated to come in between 700,000t and 1.5Mt, while soybeans are expected to total between 1.5Mt and 2.2Mt. Both figures are slightly smaller than estimates of previous weeks.  These numbers will be released tomorrow morning US time.  Then the WASDE is noon Friday US time.
  • Macro markets jumped today on renewed optimism that US lawmakers could still reach an agreement on additional stimulus.  A barrage of overnight tweets appeared from President Donald Trump advocating a piecemeal approach. Trump sent stocks tumbling yesterday by ending talks with Democrats.  The seesaw we’ve seen since yesterday’s plunge is just case in point for the volatility we may encounter as we close in on the election.

 

Australia

  • Basis was squashed on all winter crops yesterday.  Flat price rallied but was eating into basis levels which pushed them to recent record low levels on wheat & canola.
  • The flat price bid was attractive enough to pry some grain from growers hands on the verge of harvest.  NNSW hitting early stages of harvest meant any hint of an existing old crop inverse disappearing.
  • WA GM canola found a bid late at $600/t drawing out some limited sellers.
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