Lower for grains and oilseeds.
- CBOT wheat down -8.5c to 437.25c,
- Kansas wheat down -7c to 441.75c,
- Corn down -5.75c to 355.25c,
- Soybean down -2.25c to 968.75c,
- Winnipeg Canola down -5.199$C to 498.7$C,
- Matif canola down -4.75€ to 365€.
- The Dow Jones down -22.86 to 21784.78,
- Crude Oil down -US4.9c to US$49.11,
- AUD up to 0.804c,
- CAD down to 1.213c, (AUDCAD 0.975)
- EUR up to 1.201c (AUDEUR 0.669).
Winter wheats suffered, while Minni held up. The market took a breath and reassessed Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat recent performance. With global stocks as heavy as they are, sustained rallies are unlikely. The timing of the sell off was strange however with, global cash prices rallying and Australian premiums increasing on frost and moisture concerns. The Ruble was stronger again, up 0.8 per cent (pc), and saw Russian prices increase. Weekly export sales out tomorrow are expected to be significantly higher than what is required to meet the USDA’s balance sheet figures.
Corn failed to break technical resistance, which quickly turned into a no confidence vote, leading to today’s turnaround. The market is expecting lower than expected corn yields in USDA’s report next Tuesday. There was nothing fresh from a fundamental point of view. Weekly export sales are expected at 950,000t tomorrow and anything below this should add offer side pressure.
Beans took a mild breather, which is fair enough, given their recent strength. The market is predicting a USDA yield figure of 48.7 bushels/acre vs. 49.4 in August, for USDA’s report next Tuesday. New crop production is not yet a foregone conclusion, with hurricane threats and dry cool temps expected to finish most of the crop.
Canola price is suffering on a lack of nearby demand, attributed to unappealing export bids and ongoing dollar strength against the CAD. The dollar has rallied more than 2pc against the USD in the last 4 sessions. This is also having knock on effects to domestic crushers, whose meal and oil export margins have depleted on the USD weakness. The Canadian canola market is heavily reliant on Chinese demand this year, and part of the recent price pressure is their lack of import activity of late.
The Aussie forecast is dry again and there is some minor potential for frosts in central NSW over the weekend. Cash markets have fired up as consumers rally basis on the real threat of a sub 20Mt wheat crop. Barley is along for the ride, but is potentially understated considering the global markets heavy reliance on an all available stocks.