Markets

Daily Market Wire 9 August 2021

Lachstock Consulting, August 9, 2021

Canola and wheat lifted 1pc to 2pc, soybeans firmed a little and corn was virtually unchanged. US dollar strengthened.

  • Chicago wheat September contract up US6.25c/bu to 719c;
  • Kansas wheat September contract up 14.25c/bu to 705.75c;
  • Minneapolis wheat September contract up 12.5c/bu to 916.25c;
  • MATIF wheat September contract up €4.50/t to €229.50/t;
  • Corn September contract was down 0.75c/bu to 555c;
  • Soybeans September contract up 8.5c/bu to 1344.25c;
  • Winnipeg canola November contract was up C$12.40 to $891.80;
  • MATIF rapeseed November contract up €3/t to €542.50/t;
  • US dollar index up 0.5 to 92.8;
  • AUD weaker at US$0.736;
  • CAD weaker at $1.255;
  • EUR weaker at $1.176;
  • ASX wheat September contract unchanged at A$329/t;
  • ASX wheat January 2022 up $1/t to $325/t.

International

The next WASDE report will be published on Thursday.

Firmer across the boards for wheat on Friday, with Chicago closing +6 1/4¢, KC +14 1/4¢, Minny +12.5¢, and Matif +4.5€ on the earlier close.  Corn was off 3/4¢ and beans +8.5¢, with Matif +3€ and winnipeg +$12.4.  Crude oil has dropped over a buck as demand worries continue to circulate (although Chinese import figures out over the weekend should substantial increases there with more refineries coming back from maintenance) to $68.3 WTI / $70.7 Brent and the DOW was up 144 points.  The AUD is trading at 73.5¢, the CAD $1.255, and the EUR $1.176.

US Corn Belt weather maps remain in focus. Forecasts early/mid this week are for a widespread inch to inch and a half across almost the entirety of the central and eastern Corn Belt.  Rains across the WCB into the weekend proved fairly patchy though, with misses for parts of northern Iowa/eastern Kansas and Nebraska but reasonable falls in southern Minnesota.

Survey estimates for this week’s WASDE reports are generally in the ~177-178 range for corn yield, ~50.5 range for bean yields, both slightly below USDA figures from July.  Wheat production estimates are also slightly lower for spring wheat, other spring wheat ideas averaging ~20 mbu lower. Various estimates of HRS are sub 300 mbu.

Wheat harvest in both US and Canadian spring wheat areas continues to push along, with wide-ranging yield and quality reports off the header.  Some are starting to talk slightly higher average yields with the larger areas of poorer yielding crops still being cut for hay, though both figures are hard to peg in this season.

EU/Black Sea region wheat harvest continues. The French harvest was pegged at 66pc early last week and estimated to be approaching three quarters complete after this weekend and Russian wheat harvest pushing over 14.5 mha according to government figures there on Friday.  Ukraine is expected to be pushing 24 million tonnes harvested early this week for wheat, ~8Mt barley

Friday brought a new Chinese sales flash for the US, with two boats of new crop beans reported sold.

Egypt’s plans to increase subsidized bread prices there are attracting more attention again as a domestic backlash builds in poorer areas of the country and opening concerns about political stability.

With three days of trading prior to the August WASDE report, markets are already starting to take some risk off actions – plenty of ideas about where final corn yield will be but in the meantime markets will trade whatever figure the USDA publishes on Thursday there.

Australia

RBA comments on Friday suggested that they expect to see some choppy economic activity through the coming year with cyclical lockdowns and post-lockdown bounces until vaccinations reach higher levels.  They also upgrade their economic growth forecast to four percent, from three and a half prior.

WA rains largely were in the 5-20 mm range over the weekend, with a few brighter spots.  Extended run weather maps are already starting to flirt with another mid-month system though, with a few variations between models about how far south it will track.

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