The sell off continued across futures boards, approaching WASDE-day. UK citizens began to receive COVID vaccine last night.
- Chicago wheat March contract down US7.5cents/bushel to 570c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March contract down 8.5c/bu to 538c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March contract down 5.5c/bu to 543.25c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March contract up €0.25/t to €201.5;
- Corn March contract down 4.25c/bu to 419.75c/bu;
- Soybeans January contract down 12.75c/bu to 1145.75c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola January contract down C$7.50/t to $575.90/t;
- MATIF rapeseed February contract down €3.25 to €404.75;
- Brent crude February up US$0.05 per barrel to $48.84;
- Dow Jones index up 104 points to 30,174;
- AUD weaker at $0.741;
- CAD weaker at $1.282;
- EUR weaker at $1.211.
- The next USDA WASDE report is due out tomorrow night. This is a normally quiet report, and few in the market are expecting any kind of fireworks as the USDA normally leaves domestic figures largely unchanged prior to the Jan stocks and production reports.
- Average surveyed ending stocks estimates were around 1.7 billion bushels (bbu) for corn, 170 million bushels (mbu) for beans (down 20 mbu from prior) and unchanged for wheat.
- US/China political tension once again flared as China announced it was looking at “reciprocal” actions after the recent sanctions.
- On that vein, China announced the other day it had added meat processor Meramist to its ban list for meat imports. That is the sixth plant on the list now
- Markets are getting happier and happier with South American rain, with optimism after the recent storms outweighing the relative dry outlooks for most of Mato Grosso and Goiás across the two-week outlooks.
- Crop scout Cordonnier forecast the Brazilian bean crop at 130 million tonnes (Mt), and Argentina at 49Mt – though noting that this is rain dependent
- Chatter about more Brazilian soybean cargoes being booked has run around the market, and we note that there have been no new USDA flashes to China in a month now.
- Aussie cash markets moved lower again yesterday with wheat being down $5-7/t across the board. Barley was also down again another $3-4/t and canola was down in line with east coast track values ($587-590/t range)
- ASX wheat contracts were active throughout the day with Jan trade down to $269/t on a spread to March which finished the day settling at $273/t
- Harvest action was still minimal throughout southern NSW, Victoria and South Australia. We expect headers to start rolling again today
- Impressive weather models are now predicting good rains through Qld and Northern NSW. This will help bolster summer crops and restore soil moisture
- There is also a front is building in WA, the 8-day BOM forecast has this system providing widespread rain in the north (25-100mm) with cropping areas calling for 5-15mm.
Source: Lachstock Consulting
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