US wheat rallied in overnight trading but other quoted markets eased.
- Chicago wheat March contract up US10cents per bushel to 778.75c/bu;
- Kansas wheat March contract up 9.5c/bu to 801.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis wheat March up 19.25c/bu to 940.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat March contract down €1.50/t to €264.50/t;
- Corn March contract down 3c/bu to 632.25c/bu;
- Soybeans March contract down 12.75c/bu to 1569c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola May 2022 contract down C$11.30/t to $1007.10/t;
- MATIF rapeseed May 2022 contract down €24.75/t to €677/t;
- ASX March 2022 wheat contract A$2/t weaker at $359/t;
- ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract $3/t weaker at $359/t;
- AUD dollar firmer at US$0.715.
StatsCan flipped the story back to wheat overnight. Canadian wheat stocks were reported at 15.5 million tonnes (Mt), down 10Mt from last year and, more importantly, 2Mt under the trade estimate leading into the report. With the USDA report due to be released tonight, row crops took some chips off the table, more because of profit taking rather than any fundamental shift. StatsCan had canola Dec 31 stocks pegged at 7.561Mt, at the lower end of the pre-report estimates of 7.5-8Mt.
Exports of US grain in 2021 hit an all-time high, according to the USDA. Exports of farm and food products totalled $177 billion, 15 per cent above the 2014 record and 18pc above 2020. China took $33 billion in purchases, up 25pc from 2020.
While the soybean market was lower overnight, fundamentals are still very supportive. Reports from the northern region of the Brazilian belt indicate yields are down 10pc from pre-report estimates. The USDA’s last print was 139Mt, but private forecasters are at 128-133Mt, so tonight’s report is extremely important for market sentiment.
Black Sea winter wheat conditions are looking good with ample snow cover adding to the moisture profile. While early days, the prospects for spring wheat also look favourable. Black Sea wheat was down $0.50/t in overnight trading.
Wheat values remained largely unchanged yesterday, as the focus remains on grain in good execution sites or delivered parcels as freight still remains very tight. The track-to-delivered spread on SFW wheat through Melbourne and Geelong remains as wide as A$40/t. Barley markets were also unchanged and liquidity continues to trickle through to the market. Some prompt buying interested popped up through the domestic homes along the east coast late in the day. Canola bids were up $3-5/t through the depots, and $5-10/t stronger on the delivered to east coast ports.
South Australian bulk handler Viterra released its first post-harvest receival monthly report yesterday, and the network reported taking in 94,989t since January 10, with wheat being the major receival.
Source: Lachstock Consulting