Futures closed mixed overnight.
Chicago closed +3¢, KC +3¢, Minny -1¢, and Matif +1€. Winnipeg canola was unchanged while Matif gained 1.5€ and beans were off 6¢ (corn -2¢). The Dow has continued up another 256 points while crude is just under $50 on WTI and $58.7 on Brent. US politics remain forefront and centre, with no resolution pending to the government shutdown, but with ongoing reports that the China/US trade talks have made some (repeat . . . some) progress, optimism seems to be taking some hold in the equities markets. Be on the watch for more political headlines today though, with competing speeches as President Trump addresses the US (with Democratic politicians following). The AUD continues to hold its recent rebound strength (71.4¢), the Euro is slightly firmer at 1.144, and the CAD at 1.327.
Black Sea grain markets will be pushing back into action tonight, and just in time with GASC back in the wheat market again (LH Feb + FH Mar shipment). With the recent strength in Russian values, the question will be whether there are any sellers needing to unload existing length – assuming that is not the case the tender looks set to be competitive and there’s a good shot for some US wheat to make the mix against Russian and European. (Australian wheat is nowhere close to the equation, not a problem given our local market conditions and regional demand) Similarly, the Algerian tender from the other day appears to have some HRW in the mix with Cargill’s business. With the USDA report delayed, these tenders are grabbing even more attention than normal – but are also confirmation that global demand is finally shifting onto the US side (the question remains how much and to what extent it will continue).
Soybeans and corn
Even as Chinese/US politics appears to be smoothing over, bean markets have settled back slightly today with purchases slowing down (and questions about whether there will be many more to come given the politics and upcoming SAM crops). More rains have also pushed onto the weather maps in Brazil – but remain the near term focus as traders re-evaluate potential US export demand in light of the Chinese business.
Rain is needed across the Darling Downs/N NSW for later planted sorghum crops, and the BOM doesn’t seem to hold any good news for us at current – still holding dry weather maps into the coming week. While earlier crops are in good nick and harvest has started coming off in the last few days, the later crops out towards Talwood are starting to hurt (despite a great start). There’s still time for moisture, but concerns will continue building until/unless we see some change to weather. Wheat and barley transhipments are continuing from WA, with more boats loading this week – though at current price spreads there’s no margin open on paper to work further business.
Source: Lachstock Consulting