US markets displayed a firm tone though spring wheat continued to retrace earlier gains.

Chicago wheat rallied 5usc/bu, Minni fell 13.75usc/bu and Kansas firmed 2.5usc/bu. Corn was basically unchanged while beans added 19.75usc/bu to settle at 1580usc/bu. Meal rallied USD$2.90/st, soy oil firmed 1.25usc/lb while Canadian canola fell CAD$16.6/mt to settle at CAD$865.80/mt. The Dow was unchanged while crude firmed USD$0.82/bbl and the AUD was trading at 0.7737

Rain on the forecast, spring wheat goes down

There’s increasing noise around the winter wheat belt in Russia going from a concern to a problem. Excess moisture at the business end of the growing season has led to concerns about quality although, with global protein spreads relatively tight and the need to feed more wheat this year due to corn tightness, a lower quality Russian wheat crop may not be the worst thing. Spring wheat is a clearer story and we need to keep an eye on the predicted heat.
The corn microscope is focused on the north-western belt which is predicted to see only 50pc of normal rainfall for the next 15 days and temps are slated to be 5°C over normal maximum temperatures. Meanwhile the eastern belt looks close to perfect
The old adage, “Its not time in the market, its timing the market” may ring true for the global wheat buyer. The potential delay in the Russian harvest has the ability to force some short-term extreme tightness for those running hand-to-mouth programs. This scenario gets exponentially more problematic should the corn belt run into a hot, dry spell and the US feeder starts adding SRW to their HRW ration. This is what weather markets do; fill wires with “what ifs”. The known factor is, wet forecasts will be sold, that is, unless the forecast is in the Russian winter wheat belt.
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Australia

Wheat markets remained relatively unchanged for the day on both new and old crop. Jan 22 ASX wheat contract settled down $2.50/t to $312/t. Barley was also steady for the day with values largely unchanged. Again we saw more gains in the new crop canola market along the east coast delivered into the crushes up $10/t.
Winter has hit! Cold snaps have hit most of SA and the east coast with temps dropping, but rain has been falling and growers are happy with the precipitation received thus far keeping crops in the game.

Source: Lachstock Consulting