Markets

Daily Market Wire 9 June 2022

Lachstock Consulting, June 9, 2022

Most markets firmed less than 1pc overnight. Canola gained 2pc. The Australian dollar weakened ½ pc.

  • Chicago wheat July contract up US3 cents per bushel to 1074.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat July contract up 5.75c/bu to 1155c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat July up 7.25c/bu to 1234.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat September contract down €3.75/t to €381.75/t;
  • Black Sea wheat July contract down $1.25/t to $407.25/t;
  • Corn July contract up 7.5c/bu to 764.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans July contract up 11.75c/bu to 1740c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract up C$23.20/t at $1063.20/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract up €7.75/t to €785.75/t;
  • ASX July 2022 wheat contract down A2.50/t to A$452.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $1/t to $462/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.719.

International

International news appears to be more of the same but there is little in the way of a clear way forward. From what we can gather, Russia and Turkey seem to be forging ahead with some kind of agreement, but Ukraine is a) not involved and b) not excited about the prospect of having an unprotected coastline. The clearing of the mines sounds like no easy process either and, should the US and/or UK navy get involved somehow I am sure Vlad would have a thing or two to say.

Friday is report day – actually there is a bunch of meaningful data out. USDA export sales (expected to be circa 300k for new crop), June WASDE report and Agrimer which will tell us how the French crop looks. Meaningful, given global balances, reports of a bunch of hail and wind over the week may have some impact. The USDA report will once again be focused on what they think about the Russian/Ukraine situation.

Manitoba’s crop progress is one month behind normal and is pegged at 65pc planted vs 95pc 5-year average according to the province ag ministry.

To fight domestic inflation the US is considering reducing tariffs on Chinese products. US inflation data which is out on Friday is expected to hold steady at 8.3pc annually, a 40-year high.

Australia

Australian markets were relatively quiet yesterday with only small amounts of old crop trading, mainly in WA where feed barley was trading at $400/t FIS.

The ongoing challenges for ports keeping up to the vessels continues. The May export volume looks like we will see under 4 million tonnes (Mt) of grain exports including containers. June is shaping up to be an optimistic 4.5Mt before we factor in containers. As we have seen in recent months, we just keep rolling these vessels out and maintaining high congestion rates

The 8-day forecast is looking dry for Qld and northern NSW which will help to dry out very wet paddocks and hopefully allow for more of the winter crop to be sown. Although for many it will take longer than 8 days without rain to get going. There is less than 5mm forecast for central and southern NSW which could be a nuisance. WA looks set to pick up the highest totals over the next 8 days with 15-25mm expected for most.

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