Markets

Daily Market Wire 9 November 2022

Lachstock Consulting, November 9, 2022

Markets eased 1pc to 2pc overnight. The Dow Jones Industrials Average gained another 1pc and Brent crude fell 3pc.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US18 cents per bushel to 827.75c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 11.5c/bu at 945.75c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 9.75c/bu to 950.5c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €6/t to €330/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down US$0.75 to $316.75/t;
  • Corn December contract down 8.25c/bu to 667.5c/bu;
  • Soybeans March 2023 contract down 4.75c/bu to 1453.25c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola March 2023 contract was down C$11.90/t to $882.10/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed February 2023 contract down €7.25/t to  €641.50/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract up $A4.50/t to $490/t ;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract down A$1/t to $339/t;
  • AUD dollar firmer at US$0.651.

International

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has told the visiting US Ambassador to the United Nations that the grain export deal must be extended.

Mr Zelenskyy said Ukraine maintained the line the “initiative must continue regardless of whether the Russian Federation is willing,” and that Ukraine is ready to remain the guarantor of world food security.

Turkey’s Defence Minister has said Turkey is working on a proposal for the deal to be extended for one year, rather than 120 days, beyond November 19.

Algeria’s state grains agency OAIC has made a small initial purchase in an international tender which closed on Tuesday, with estimated prices of US$367-$368/t C&F with Russian wheat the likely source.

EU soft-wheat exports during the season that began July 1 reached 12.5 million tonnes (Mt) as of November 6, which the European Commission said compares with 11.9Mt in the similar 2021 period.

According to Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry, 4.3 million hectares (Mha), or 90pc of projected area of winter crop has been planted. Wheat accounted for 3.6Mha, barley 568,000ha and rye 79,000ha. The sowing of winter rapeseed has been completed on 999,000 hectares, or 104pc of projected area.

France’s agriculture ministry said the French corn crop is now seen at 11Mt, down from an October outlook for 11.4Mt. This would be 29pc lower than last year and 21pc below the prior five-year average, reflecting the severe drought over summer.

Reflecting an accelerated pace of shipments, SovEcon has increased its 2022-23 Russian wheat export forecast by 300,000t to 43.7Mt vs 39.1Mt in the previous year. SovEcon has also reported 2023-24 winter crop sowing is complete at 17.3Mha (18.1Mha last year). Overall conditions are favourable for crop development, albeit with some dryness in southern regions.

The US announced sales yesterday of 338,600t of corn and 144,000t of soybeans to Mexico, 138,700t of soybeans to China and 132,000t of soybeans to unknown buyers, all for 2022-23.

Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is seeking to buy a total of 94,603t of food-quality wheat from the US and Canada in regular tenders that will close on Thursday.

Australia

Harvest is ramping up where possible between bog holes in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Early quality results are pleasing but are likely to be skewed as better crops are being harvested firs.t

Domestic markets traded sideways again yesterday, with still only a trickle of sellers. The Australian dollar firmed while futures relaxed slightly again which is is seeing basis fluctuate as local value remains stagnant

The rainfall forecast is ugly for NSW, Victoria, eastern South Australia and southern Queensland, with Victoria perhaps looking to be in for the worst.

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