Daily Market Wire 9 October 2018

Lachstock Consulting, October 9, 2018

Lower for grains and mixed for oilseeds.

  • CBOT Wheat down -7.5c to 513.5c,
  • Kansas wheat down -7.5c to 516.75c
  • Spring Wheat down -2.75c to 588.5c
  • CBOT Corn down -1.75c to 366.5
  • Soybeans up 1c to 870c,
  • Dow Jones down -15.39 to 26431.66
  • Crude oil down -0.35c to 73.91c
  • AUD up to 0.7078
  • CAD down to 0.77181
  • EUR wasdown to 1.14888.


Wheat was under pressure from the get-go with improved moisture in Australia, combining with a Russian announcement contrary to the markets current view here. The Russian Government announced that it would release 1.5 million tonnes (Mt) of grain over the next three months, largely consisting of wheat, from their state reserves. On one hand, this would reduce pressure for export intervention and could see wheat exports over 30Mt, leaving more time for them to dominate the global market, prompting less reliance on US exports. Alternatively, this could be a measure put in place to settle the domestic price, which could be the start of a greater problem that sees greater export controls beyond the next three months. Implied volatility in Dec Soft Red Winter wheat finished at 21.5pc, Black Sea Wheat was down US$0.50/t to $248.50/t and Matif wheat was down €0.5/t to €203/t.


Corn finished fractions lower in a session lacking major news. The range was only US5c/bu as the market weighs up quality and yield threats, against an upcoming WASDE report, a decent reduction in the short position and the potential for increased grower selling. Ongoing rainfall is forecast in the western corn belt and the Plains until Wednesday this week, with concerns mounting for stalk quality in some spots.


Soybeans finished fractions higher, trading a 12c/bu range either side of unchanged. Weakness in the oil markets and nothing positive on China-US relationships prompted a sell off attempt. However, quality issues that are emerging in Delta area were highlighted by increased cash premiums which saw prices recover. Soybean meal was down US$1/t and soy oil was down 0.37 points.


Canola was again mixed across the two contracts, with Winnipeg continuing to gain on Matif. The catalyst remains untimely in crop rainfall that is raising yield and quality concerns to prompt a decent short covering effort.


Australian markets retreated yesterday in light volume with ASX wheat falling $8-$12, the catalyst for this was the east coast weather forecast that took the urgency out of consumer bids. This does nothing for winter crop potential but should shore up summer crop potential, which helped drive a shift in sentiment. Looking forward the 8-day forecast has 5-15 mm in southern parts of WA, 15-25mm in Victoria with decent coverage, 10-15mm in Central/NNSW and 25-50mm in Qld with reasonable coverage.


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