Markets

Daily Market Wire 9 September 2022

Lachstock Consulting, September 9, 2022

Canola, 2pc lower, continued to decline. Chicago wheat eased 2pc. Brent steadied.

  • Chicago wheat December contract down US15.25 cents per bushel to 829c/bu;
  • Kansas wheat December contract down 8.5c/bu to 893c/bu;
  • Minneapolis wheat December contract down 1.75c/bu to 898.25c/bu;
  • MATIF wheat December contract down €3.50/t to €325.25/t;
  • Black Sea wheat December contract down $0.25/t to $317/t;
  • Corn December contract down 2.5c/bu to 668.5/bu;
  • Soybeans November contract up 2.5c/bu to 1386c/bu;
  • Winnipeg canola November 2022 contract was down C$16.70/t to $769.80/t;
  • MATIF rapeseed November 2022 contract down  €9.25/t to €600/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 wheat contract unchanged at A$400/t;
  • ASX Jan 2023 barley contract unchanged at A$310/t;
  • AUD dollar weaker at US$0.675.

International

The deputy head of Ukraine’s Shipping Administration, said more use of the corridor was needed to bring down insurance costs but acknowledged that the war was constraining shipowners. “Some of them are still afraid for their ships.” Logistics bottlenecks have increased the cost of getting harvest to ports and storage silos, an issue farming minister Solsky acknowledged was hindering exports. “Our main and biggest problem…is that our demand for logistics is several times higher than the supply.”

To date 103 ships have left Ukraine ports carrying 1.3Mt corn, 486,000t wheat, 161,000t sunflower oil, 139,000t of barley, 82,000t of canola and 73,000t of sunflower meal.

Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR has raised its forecast for Russia’s 2022 wheat crop to 97Mt and pegged exports at 46Mt. It claims that Russia has already broken its wheat harvest record of 86Mt.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday he wanted grain from Russia to be exported too, and President Vladimir Putin was right about grains exported from Ukraine under a United Nations-backed deal going to wealthy countries, not poor ones. Erdogan said Putin was uncomfortable with grain shipments going to countries that sanction Russia.

According to Rosario Grains Exchange Argentine soybean farmers sold 3.1Mt soybeans between Monday and Wednesday, nearly five times more than last week, after the government introduced new foreign exchange incentives.

The latest ENSO forecast model runs by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently have suggested that La Niña may last longer than previously suggested. The model runs had previously suggested La Niña would weaken greatly in December and dissipate in January, but now the model has delayed that decay another month.

The IGC reports that Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association bought 55,375t wheat from the US for shipment from PNW ports in Nov. The purchase included DNS (min 14.5pc protein content), at $405.28 fob, HRW (12.5pc) at $437.16 fob and SW (max. 9.5pc) at $380.02 fob.

Japan’s MAFF is seeking 70,000t feed wheat and 40,000t feed barley in a SBS tender, for arrival by end Feb.

Australia

Local new crop markets gained some strength yesterday. Wheat values were up $5-7/t, barley up $4-5/t and canola was slightly firmer also by $5/t. Grower selling activity picked up some interest and old crop liquidity continued to trickle out.

The ACCC’s Bulk grain ports monitoring report industry update, released yesterday, summarised the views of Australia’s bulk grain exporters in the wake of the record 2020-21 shipping year. Exporters are concerned about a lack of transparency in the way port operators allocate capacity to them. “The bulk grain export industry has undergone some significant changes over the last five years, so we need to consider whether the current regulation of exporter access to port terminals is still fit for purpose,” ACCC deputy chair Mick Keogh said.

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