MORE than half of Australia’s extra grain production in 2030 will be consumed within Australia, according to new Australian Export Grains Innovation Centre (AEGIC) analysis.

AEGIC chief economist Professor Ross Kingwell said Australian growers would be producing an additional 5.5 million tonnes (Mt) of grain by 2030, an increase of over 11 per cent compared to trend production in 2017.

Only about half of the additional grain will be available for export, with the rest going straight to the domestic market – mostly for animal feed.

“In little over a decade, Australia’s population is projected to reach 30 million, a jump of almost 5 million people,” Professor Kingwell said.

“This will cause a big increase in domestic grain demand for feed and food.

“And with 75pc of Australia’s consumers currently living in eastern Australia, almost all the extra grain produced in the eastern states will be consumed in those eastern states.”

Professor Kingwell said by 2030 between 2.4Mt and 2.8Mt of extra grain would be available for export nationwide.

“Most of this will come from the less populous states of Western Australia and South Australia,” he said.

“Export demand in key international grain markets is projected to increase, so we expect the extra grain will find a home.”

Professor Kingwell said Australia’s increased grain production in 2030 would stem from growers successfully increasing their crop yields in a volatile and changing climate.

“The area planted to crops is not likely to increase towards 2030, so yield increases aided by the skill of farmers, researchers and advisers will be crucial.”

Source: AEGIC

AEGIC’s report Australia’s Grain Outlook 2030 is available here.