A farmer inspects a wheat crop in Egypt. Photo: Ahmed el Sheemy/ICARDA

EGYPT, traditionally the world’s largest wheat importer, is suffering an import slump as shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region stifle supply from its major suppliers. The country remains highly dependent on Black Sea wheat, with little appetite for alternatives evident at this point in the season, even as supply uncertainty increases, freight rates surge and global sourcing options shift.

Together, Russia and Ukraine accounted for about 85 percent of the country’s international wheat purchases in 2025. Russia, which ships more than 70pc of its grain exports from Black Sea ports, saw its August wheat shipments fall to 60pc of normal as the exchange of attacks with Ukraine intensified. Around 85pc of Ukraine’s grain exports traditionally move via Black Sea ports, but the persistent Russian strikes on infrastructure and loaded vessels have limited shipments to just a third of monthly capacity.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, the two sides have repeatedly targeted port facilities and vessels transiting the Black Sea, disrupting grain exports in particular. Drone strikes on logistics infrastructure and bulk ships intensified early this month, with a number of ships struck in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone for the first time since the war began, several of which have sunk.

Shipping data shows Egypt imported less than 1 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat in July and August, the first two months of the 2026-27 marketing year.  This is around half the volume purchased in the same period last year. The nation’s September imports were just 363,000t, a 76.6pc decrease from the 1.55Mt imported in September 2025.

The Egyptian Government has not imported wheat since May, preferring to rely on private-sector imports to meet its needs as the drone warfare intensifies and shipping from Black Sea ports grows riskier. However, many private Egyptian importers have reportedly withdrawn from the market amid the Black Sea supply disruptions.

Egyptian grain buyers are weighing up the risk of buying ahead of a possible price decline, should hostilities ease, against the cost of waiting too long to secure replacement supplies, as Black Sea disruptions change both sourcing decisions and delivery economics. At the same time, sea freight, insurance and currency exposure are making alternative supplies more expensive to deliver.

According to a statement from the Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade, Egypt’s strategic wheat reserves are sufficient to meet domestic needs for several months. The ministry said the state was continuing efforts to secure basic commodity supplies and that higher domestic wheat production had strengthened reserves.

Nonetheless, that leaves only a limited window in which to wait before inventories become critically low. If export conditions fail to improve, the market expects more-aggressive Egyptian purchasing to surface in coming months from alternative origins, including Romania, Bulgaria, France, and potentially the United States.

Egypt’s farmers produced a record 10.2Mt of wheat in 2026, up 10.9pc, or 1Mt, compared to the 2025 campaign. The bigger crop reflects an increase in the harvested area from 1.3-1.5M hectares, with the average yield at 6.67t/ha, 3.6pc lower than the 2025 harvest.

The government procurement program, which runs from mid-April to mid-August, is reported to have exceeded the official 2026 target of 5Mt, marking a new record and more than a 25pc increase on the 4Mt delivered to government collection centres in 2025. The purchases comprised 4.7Mt of milling wheat, along with 150,000t designated as certified seed, and 200,000t of durum for pasta manufacturers.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture’s attaché in Cairo, Egypt will need to import 12Mt of wheat in the 2026-27 marketing year, around 3.5Mt less than the previous season, after a flurry of imports early in 2026, bolstering reserves for the subsidy program as a buffer against potential price shocks driven by regional conflicts. This season’s July 1 opening stocks totalled 5.8Mt, double the 2.9Mt held a year earlier.

Egypt’s Ministry of Supply has resumed offering wheat through the Egyptian Mercantile Exchange after a hiatus of more than 30 months, aiming to calm an erratic local market and meet near-term private miller requirements. The intervention was triggered by a rally in domestic flour prices in the wake of import bottlenecks and climbing global wheat values. The first phase restricts bidding to raw wheat grain, with no provisions to trade milled flour.

Meanwhile, Future of Egypt, the nation’s state grain buyer, last week tightened quality specifications for wheat imports by requiring a minimum baking-strength rating of 160W, a move that could further narrow sourcing options if Black Sea flows fail to improve.

The revised specification ⁠is widely seen as a response to quality concerns surrounding some origins, particularly this season’s Bulgarian wheat crop, which has been returning lower W values. The W rating measures bread-making quality, with lower values producing weaker dough. It indicates the wheat flour’s ability to absorb water, form a strong gluten network, and retain gas during fermentation.

The W number is determined through a test called the Chopin alveograph, which measures the dough’s elasticity and extensibility by inflating a small bubble of dough until it bursts. Higher W readings mean the flour is stronger and better suited to recipes that require longer fermentation times, such as breads and pizza bases, while lower W values are ideal for lighter, quicker bakes like cakes, pastries and biscuits.