Rise in Russian wheat export estimates: USDA

Neil Lyon, March 9, 2018

THE USDA’s March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) have lifted the figure for Russia’s 2017/18 full-year wheat exports to 37.5 million tonnes (Mt), up from the record 36Mt forecast in February.

USDA’s March estimate of world wheat trade rose very slightly from the February figure to 182Mt, while world domestic usage fell 2Mt to 743Mt, to lift USDA’s projection of world wheat stocks at the close of the 2017/18 marketing year by 3Mt to 269Mt.

Wheat production 2017/18 data is not expected to change at this time of year, and USDA’s latest forecast at 758 Mt is unchanged from the February estimate.

Month-by-month data which change a little at this time of year are the updates to domestic consumption of wheat, which can be affected by the northern hemisphere’s winter, and updates to import/export and stock carry-out projection for the end of the marketing year shortly.

Looking forward

USDA will issue more enlightening reports on wheat late in March and during April and May, when ideas about planted area and yield potential of northern-hemisphere winter cereals will be clearer as crops advance through grain-fill towards maturity and harvest mid-year.

USDA said with global supplies rising and total demand falling, world ending stocks are up 2.8Mt to a record 268.9 Mt.

Coarse grains

Major global trade changes for 2017/18 this month include higher projected corn exports for the United States more than offsetting a reduction for Argentina and Brazil.

Sorghum exports are lowered for Australia, reflecting reduced exportable supplies, and China’s corn and barley imports have been raised, and partially offset by lower imports of sorghum.

Based on tenders to date and expectations of robust demand from China, the estimate for Saudi Arabia’s barley imports has been lowered,

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2017/18 are higher from last month, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil, India and the European Union.

Source: USDA




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