World oats production holds steady

Grain Central, September 24, 2018

GLOBAL oats production has remained relatively static from 2011/17, reaching 23 million tonnes (Mt) in 2017 after fluctuating mildly, according to the “World: Oats – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2025” published by IndexBox.

Production fell abruptly over 2009/10 due to a slump in demand during the global financial crisis.

Afterwards, the global output recovered and then flattened through to 2017, but yet failed to regain its pre-crisis peak levels.

Global harvested area of oats also kept a relatively flat trend pattern from 2011-2017, declining slightly over the last two years to 9.260 million hectares.

Russia, Canada and Australia major producers

Russia (4.7Mt), Canada (2.9Mt), Australia (1.4Mt) remain key oat producing countries in 2017, with a combined 39 per cent share of the total output.

The other major producers, namely Poland, Finland, Brazil, the United States, Spain, Argentina, the United Kingdom, Sweden and Chile, lagged far behind in terms of oats output.

In Canada, production levels had been decreasing by -4.6pc annually from 2007 to 2017, due to a decrease in harvested areas over the last two years. In Russia and Australia, oats output experienced a very mild decrease.

Oats exports

Oats are a widely traded commodity, with the share of exports in total global output standing at about 16pc in 2017.

The trade intensity is not very high due to most oats being consumed locally (especially in Russia); however, there are significant amounts of imported oats in the US (the second consumer worldwide), Germany, China and some other countries.

Canada main global supplier

The export volume totalled 3.2Mt in 2017 which is 4pc more than in the previous year. The volume of oat exports maintained a relatively flat trend pattern over the last 10 years, with noticeable fluctuations in certain years.

In 2017 the value of exports totalled $725M, bouncing back slightly against the previous year. Unlike the export volume, the export value was fluctuating during the observed period due to price fluctuations.

There was a sharp drop from 2015-2016 due to a decrease in oats price. The price reflected a general trend for global cereal grain market, where prices were being pressured by a drop of energy prices.

As of 2017, Canada had the largest export volume of 1.5Mts, comprising 48pc of total global import. It was followed by, all lagging far behind, Australia (13pc), Finland (10pc) and Sweden (8pc).

US largest import market

The volume of global imports totalled 3.6Mt in 2017, which is 9.9pc more than in the previous year.

The volume of oats imports maintained a pattern which echoed that of the volume of exports: these trade flows complement each other at a global scale.

As of 2017, the US had the largest import volume of 1.5Mt which accounted for 43pc of total global imports.

It was followed by China, which occupied another 25pc share, and Mexico, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and Japan.

Oat imports into the US decreased at an average annual rate of -1.9pc from 2007 to 2017.

At the same time, China emerged as the fastest growing importer in the world, with a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of +32.3pc from 2007-2017, boosted by rising demand for cereal foods and breakfasts amid rapid urbanization and popularity of heathy diets.

The other countries also displayed positive, but moderate paces of growth.

Source: Indexbox, https://www.indexbox.io/store/world-oats-market-report-analysis-and-forecast-to-2020/


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