Grain Prices

Feed grain update: The elephant in the crop

Luke Walker, Alliance Grains, October 12, 2016
Luke-Walker-alliance-grains

Luke Walker, Alliance Grains, Toowoomba

Quality is the elephant in the room with so much rain through August and September.

In just a few weeks the wheat, barley, and chickpea harvest will be in full swing.

As usual there are more questions than answers concerning the marketing and quality of the harvest, especially pulses thanks to the volatile weather of late.

So what lies ahead? As a famous football coach once said, making predictions is really hard, especially about the future.

He could have also been talking about Australian harvests.

No one is willing to punt on new crop grains prices until they see headers rolling and quality is confirmed.

Quality uncertainty aside, yields are still looking massive for wheat and barley, with record breaking tonnages on the cards in some areas. Some growers are talking potential yields at this point of anywhere from 3.5 to over 5 mt/hectare.

Areas in central and northern NSW have had too much rain – over 700mm since planting back in May in some instances – and crops have been standing in water for weeks on end.

Waterlogged paddocks will obviously make harvest in some cases impossible, while some shires in NSW have now also enforced maximum weight restrictions on unsealed roads.

More rain between now and harvest could obviously spell chaos.

International wheat and corn markets remain steady with only sideways movement in recent weeks.

The USDA reported corn stocks at the largest level since 2006. Wheat stocks are the largest since 1987, so there are no issues in the USA.

Brisbane port zone for new crop wheat APW1 is trading at about $40 AUD over December US wheat price so our basis seems very strong.

Current market

Current markets on a delivered feedlot basis for October are trading at:

· Sorghum delivered Darling Downs $206;

· Feed wheat trading at $238; Barley $216;

· New crop prices delivered Darling Downs November December wheat $218, and barley $200;

· Liverpool Plains November December with sorghum delivered $190 wheat $205 and barley $170

· Southern NSW in Riverina area wheat delivered October $220 and Barley $190, Victorian Goulbourn Valley wheat prices has held values pretty well at $248 and Barley $190

  • Prices quoted in this column are of an indicative nature only to illustrate trends and do not represent a definitive buy or sell price at a given point in time. For specific prices for your region contact the author at [email protected] or 0427 372 793 or twitter @lukewalker711

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