Dry harvest outcomes in EU and CIS led to the first fall in the size of the global wheat crop in six years, with the International Grains Council (IGC) overnight taking another 5Mt out of its monthly production estimate to bring its projection for the 2018-19 world wheat crop to 716MT.

The EU production forecast was cut 4.1Mt to 135.8Mt, Australia cut 2Mt to 20.5Mt and Canada 0.8 to 31Mt, while production forecasts were increased for Argentina, Kazakhstan and Russia by 0.6Mt, 0.5Mt and 1Mt respectively.

While the previous year record crop, 2017/18, production of 758Mt had resulted in a large rise in stock, this current year will see much of that stock hike reversed.

IGC saw world wheat consumption in 2018/19 at 734Mt compared with 736Mt in 2017/18 and stock shrink from 265Mt end 2017/18 to 247Mt at the end of the 2018/19 marketing year.

Barley production, stock lowest since 2012/13

IGC said world barley output, 142Mt in 2018/19, could be the lowest since the 2012/13 crop of 131Mt, similarly world stock of barley at the end of 2018/19 at 22.5Mt its lowest since the 2012/13 ending stock of 23Mt.

Chart 1. Barley ending stock, world total. Million tonnes. Source: IGC

Corn was seen with higher production, trade and consumption, its cheaper price and ready availability filling much of the void created by shortfalls in feed consumer markets previously supplied with barley and wheat.  World corn stock was seen declining 16pc to 249Mt end 2018/19, having increased in all but one of the 7 years prior.

Chart 2. Corn ending stock, world total. Million tonnes. Source: IGC

Friday fact – field peas

Shipments to China of field peas from Canada rose over previous-year quantities in the first half of 2018, dramatically increasing during the months of March, April, May and June. IGC foreshadowed that China’s imports of all pulses would increase to 1.6Mt in 2018/19, an increase of 3pc from 2017/18.

Field peas shipments from Canada to China. Thousand tonnes. Source: IGC

Source: IGC