Markets

INTL FCStone predicts wheat will slip below 15Mt

Neil Lyon, December 11, 2019

INTERNATIONAL crop watcher, INTL FCStone, has predicted the Australian 2019/20 wheat crop will come in at 14.97 million tonnes (Mt), barley 8.77Mt and canola 1.96Mt, based on a survey of its Australian clients’ production estimates.

The wheat and canola estimates are below ABARES’ December estimates of 15.8Mt and 2.12Mt respectively, while the barley estimate is slightly above ABARES’ 8.64Mt.

INTL FCStone client adviser, Nick Orssich, said drought had been “playing the devil again” with crop production across much of Australia.

“Rainfalls have been below average all year round. Victoria has been the only standout state with some decent rainfall,” he said.

“It seems we are up against the wall this year with rain and cold weather delaying harvest in Victoria and South Australia again. We are seeing fire harvest bans across parts of Australia as well.”

Mr Orssich said under current conditions, producers had been reluctant to forward sell grain.

“Growers are selling off the header more or being more cautious with their forward selling. In Western Australia growers are really holding back from selling and it is hard to get offers in the track market. We have seen that market rally hard over the last couple of weeks. Again, it has just been a case of lack of rain over the last two years,” he said.

 

 

 

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