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June WASDE lifts global wheat supply estimate: USDA

Grain Central, June 12, 2020

USDA has lifted its estimate for Indian wheat production by 4.2Mt. Photo: Food Corporation of India, Punjab region

THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its estimate for global 2020-21 wheat supplies by 5.7 million tonnes (Mt) in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand  Estimates (WASDE) report released overnight.

On top of a 720,000t lift in beginning stocks, the biggest contributors are lifts of 4.2Mt for India to a record 107.2Mt, and a 2Mt increase for Australia to 26Mt.

Production forecasts for Turkey and China have both increased by 1Mt, and are partly offset by reductions of 2Mt for the EU and 1.5Mt for Ukraine to reflect dry conditions in key parts of the growing season.

Projected 2020-21 global wheat exports are up 900,000t to 188.9Mt, led by a 2Mt increase for Australia to 17Mt, and a 1Mt increase for Russia to 36Mt.

Export forecasts have been lowered by 1.5Mt to 17.5Mt for Ukraine and 500,000t for the EU to 28Mt, both on smaller crops.

With increased supplies, and global use lowered fractionally, world ending stocks have been raised 6Mt to a record high of 316.1Mt, with China and India respectively accounting for 51 per cent and 10pc of the total.

Estimated wheat production for Canada at 34Mt is unchanged from the May figure.

US winter wheat production is forecast up 299,371t to 34.5Mt, with increases in Hard Red Winter and White Winter wheat more than offsetting a small decrease for Soft Red Winter wheat.

Total US 2020-21 wheat production is now forecast at 51.1Mt.

US domestic use and exports for the new marketing year are unchanged this month, and ending stocks are up 435,449t to a six-year low of 25.2Mt.

Coarse grains

The June WASDE’s foreign coarse-grain outlook is for larger production, increased use, and lower stocks relative to last month, with Brazilian corn production rising on higher expected area.

Barley production is raised for the EU, based mostly on a forecast increase for the United Kingdom that has been partly offset by a reduction for France.

Barley production has been raised for Australia, but lowered for Ukraine, India, and Russia.

Major global trade changes for 2020-21 include a larger corn export forecast for Zambia, with increases in corn imports for Thailand and Honduras.

A reduction in projected imports for China has lowered the estimate for Australia’s 2020-21 barley exports.

Corn exports in 2019-20 have been raised for Argentina but lowered for Brazil for its marketing year which began on 1 March.

Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020-21 are lowered from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for China, Argentina, South Africa, and Paraguay that have more than offset increases for Brazil and India.

In the use, the estimate for corn used for ethanol has been lowered to reflect  a slower-than-expected rebound in ethanol production during May and early June.

Oilseeds

The 2020-21 global oilseed S&D forecasts include slightly higher production and lower ending stocks compared with last month, with increased peanut, soybean, and sunflower seed production partly offset by lower cottonseed output.

The estimate for EU canola production has dropped 200,000t to 16.8Mt, based largely on lower yields for Germany, and has been offset by higher Australian canola production.

Soybean ending stocks for 2020-21 have been revised down by 2.1Mt to 96.3Mt, mainly reflecting lower carry-in due to revisions on 2019-20 balance sheets.

For 2019-20, soybean exports are increased 1Mt each for Argentina and Brazil based on the recent pace of shipments and reflect increased crush demand and imports for China. Partly offsetting this is reduced 2019-20 US exports.

These revisions result in higher stocks for China and lower stocks for South America.

Source: USDA

 

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