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Slight rise in world wheat supplies: USDA

Grain Central, June 12, 2017

THE United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) has raised the forecast for global wheat supplies for 2017/18 by 2.8 million tonnes (Mt) to 261.2Mt, since its last report a month ago.

The USDA predicts Australia will produce 24 million tonnes of wheat in 2017.

The increase is primarily due to a 2Mt lift in production estimates for Russia, bringing that country’s predicted total to 69.0Mt.

The USDA says growing conditions in Russia continue to be favourable for winter wheat in most areas since the crop emerged from dormancy.

Turkey’s wheat production is also forecast higher, up 0.5Mt to 18.0Mt on improved crop conditions this spring.

There has been a reduction in forecast wheat production for India of 1.0Mt to 96.0Mt, but that is still at record levels and 9.0Mt above 2016/17.

In the European Union, wheat production is forecast modestly lower at 150.8Mt on a smaller expected crop in Germany but still four percent above last year.

The USDA reports that global wheat trade remains at record levels. Higher exports for Argentina are being negated by a reduction for the EU.

Overall US exports for 2016/17 are estimated up about one-third from the previous year, making the US the largest exporter for the first time in four years.

However, in 2017/18, the EU is expected to regain its position as the world’s leading exporter given its significantly larger crop.

Coarse grains

The global outlook for 2017/18 coarse grains is for lower production, increased trade and reduced stocks relative to last month’s USDA report.

EU corn production is down based on a lower-than-expected area in France and Germany; Canada corn production is lowered on reductions to both area and yield; Ukraine corn production is raised based on the planted area being above previous expectations.

Turkey’s barley production is raised as the impact of April dryness was not as severe as previously anticipated.

Oilseeds

The USDA’s forecast for global oilseed production for 2017/18 is higher this month at 573.0Mt.

A larger cottonseed forecast in Pakistan and China, as well as higher sunflower seed output projected for Ukraine, more than offset reductions in EU rapeseed.

Global soybean consumption is forecast to grow 4pc in 2017/18, driven mainly by China’s strong protein feed demand. This demand is projected to lift soybean imports to a record 93Mt.

Source: USDA, https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf

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