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USDA’s May WASDE neutral to bearish for grains, oilseeds

Grain Central, May 13, 2021

Planting corn in South Dakota, where the crop will go towards US production forecast at 380.8Mt in USDA’s May WASDE report. Photo: Paul Kellogg

NOTHING bullish is to be found in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released overnight, despite its cut to the corn estimate for in Brazil, where the safrinha crop has had a troubled growing season.

USDA now sees Brazil’s 2020-21 corn production at 102 million tonnes (Mt), down 7Mt from the April estimate, and 1Mt lower than where commentators expected USDA to land, but well above some industry forecasts.

Record new-crop wheat seen

USDA’s initial forecast for new-crop global wheat production has come out at a record 789Mt in the May WASDE report.

This includes: Argentina 20.5Mt with exports of 13.5Mt; Australia 27Mt and exports 20Mt; Canada 32Mt and exports 23.5Mt; EU 134Mt and exports 33Mt; Russia 85Mt and exports 40Mt, and Ukraine 29Mt with exports at 20Mt.

USDA’s initial estimates for US new-crop wheat are a 51Mt crop and exports of 24.5Mt, compared with a current crop seen at 49.7Mt with 26.3Mt exported.

“The initial global wheat outlook for 2021-22 is for larger supplies, higher consumption, increased trade, and marginally higher stocks,” USDA said in its report commentary.

“Higher production for Argentina, the EU, UK, Morocco, Ukraine, and the United States is expected to more than offset reductions for Australia and Canada.

“Projected 2021-22 world consumption is raised 7.8Mt to a record 788.7Mt, primarily on higher food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), continuing a long-term uptrend.

“Wheat feed and residual use is projected up relatively less than FSI as increases in the EU, UK, Russia, and the United States are partially offset by decreased feed use for China, Canada, and Australia.

Current-crop global wheat production is seen unchanged at 776.1Mt, with global ending stocks dropping 1Mt to 294.7Mt, with China’s imports unchanged at 10.5Mt and its ending stocks also steady.

China’s new-crop wheat imports are forecast at 10Mt, while its total coarse-grain imports are forecast at a record high of 46.3Mt, up 3.1Mt from 2020-21.

“Expectations are for continued relatively high corn and other energy feedstuff prices in China, despite an increase in corn production.”

China’s estimated 2021-22 corn imports are seen at 26Mt, with barley and sorghum at 10Mt each.

Bigger Black Sea crops

USDA has released its initial new-crop corn production estimates in this report, and has come out at 380.8Mt for the US, down slightly on market expectations.

Ukraine’s new-crop corn production is seen at 37.5Mt, 7Mt up from 2020-21, while Russia is pegged at 14.9Mt, 1Mt up on last year.

“The USDA is putting a lot of weight on backend supplies coming from Ukraine and Russia,” Lachstock Consulting said in its commentary of the report.

Ukraine’s new-crop corn exports are seen at 30.5Mt, up 7.5Mt on 2020-21 shipments.

USDA’s estimate of China’s 2020-21 corn imports has lifted 2Mt to 26Mt, while current-crop corn exports are seen at 34Mt for Argentina, unchanged from April, and 35Mt for Brazil, 4Mt down from last month.

Soybeans up on year

On soybeans, USDA has forecast new-crop US soybean production at 119.9Mt, up from 112.6Mt grown in the US over last summer.

New-crop US soybean exports are forecast at 56.5Mt, down from 62.1Mt shipped from the current crop.

On China’s soybean imports, USDA’s estimate for 2020-21 is unchanged at 100Mt, while its 2021-22 figure has come out at 103Mt.

Source: USDA, Lachstock Consulting

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