WASDE adds 3Mt to Australian wheat estimate

Grain Central, August 15, 2022

Harvesting wheat in the US state of Montana. The August WASDE forecasts US 2022-23 wheat exports at 22.45Mt, up from 21.77Mt seen last month.  Photo: Franck Groeneweg

THE United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lifted its forecast for Australia’s new-crop wheat production by 3 million tonnes (Mt) to 33Mt in its latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

Released on Friday, the report said the lift for Australia has come because of increasingly favourable weather conditions, which indicate higher yield prospects.

The August WASDE has also seen a 1Mt lift in Australia’s and Canada’s forecast 2022-23 wheat exports, now at 25Mt and 26Mt respectively.

USDA has also added 3Mt to its 2022-23 estimate for wheat production in China, now at 138Mt, while Russia is forecast to produce a record 88Mt of wheat in 2022-23.

The Russian figure is up 6.5Mt from the July estimate, on both higher harvested area and yield.

Forecast Ukraine wheat production is seen steady at 19.5Mt, but the export number is up 1Mt to 11Mt.

Global wheat production in 2022-23 is now seen at a record 779.6Mt, and supplies are up 4.2Mt to 1055.9Mt as higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks.

Cuts in production estimates have been made to India, down 3Mt to 103Mt, primarily on reduced harvested area, and the EU, down 2Mt to 132.1Mt, mostly on drops for Hungary, Spain, and Romania.

Projected 2022-23 world wheat consumption is raised 4.4Mt to 788.6Mt, led by higher feed and residual use for Russia and Australia.

Projected 2022-23 global trade is up 3.2Mt to 208.6Mt on increased Russian, Australian, Ukrainian, Canadian and US exports more than offsetting lower exports from the EU and Argentina.

Russia’s exports are raised to a record 42Mt on greater exportable supplies and expectations that export prices will remain competitive.

Projected 2022-23 world ending stocks are reduced fractionally to 267.3Mt and remain at the lowest level in six years.

Hike for Australian canola

USDA has hiked its estimate for the Australian canola crop to 6.1Mt, up 700,000t from the July estimate, again based on higher yields thanks to favourable conditions.

Russia’s rapeseed crop is forecasted at a record 3.9Mt, up 1.1Mt from the previous forecast on sharply higher area.

Russia’s sunflowerseed production is raised 1.5Mt to 17Mt, also on higher reported area.

Sunflowerseed production is reduced for the EU and South Africa, while lower EU production reflects a hot and dry July.

The projected global 2022-23 oilseed crush has been raised on increased tonnage for Brazil and rapeseed and sunflowerseed crushing for Russia.

With increased supplies, rapeseed exports are raised for Australia and Russia.

Global rapeseed exports are also raised with the addition of Uruguay to global supply-and-demand estimates.

Sunflowerseed imports are raised for the EU and Belarus paired with increased exports for Russia and Ukraine.

Global oilseed stocks are raised with higher soybean and rapeseed stocks partly offset with lower sunflowerseed stocks.

Coarse grains mixed

Foreign corn production is down, with reductions for the EU and Serbia partially offset by increases for Ukraine, Malawi, Russia, and Turkey.

EU corn production is sharply lower to reflect the impact of hot and dry conditions on yield prospects.

Corn production for Ukraine is higher as moderate to heavy late-July
rainfall boost yield expectations, and Ukraine corn exports are now seen at 12.5Mt.

This figure is up from 9Mt seen in July, with the lift coming from increased export opportunities to the EU and Middle East following the opening of the Black Sea export corridor.

On barley, production prospects for 2022-23 are up on lifts for Ukraine, Australia, Russia, Turkey, and Canada, partly offset by a reduction for the EU.

The August WASDE has added 500,000t to USDA’s estimate for Australia’s new-crop barley exports, now at 6.7Mt.

Conversely, its estimate for EU barley exports is down 500,000t to 6.3Mt to reflect reduced production.

Non-US corn ending stocks for 2022-23 are down 4.2Mt to 271.4Mt.

Source: USDA


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