Markets

WASDE lifts Aus wheat, barley forecasts

Grain Central, November 14, 2022

T-Ports Wallaroo facility receives its first ever load of barley on November 9, with exports from the site on South Australia’s Yorke Peninsula expected to start mid 2023. Photo: T-Ports

INCREASES for forecast Australian wheat and barley exports and cuts for Argentina are among the headliners in USDA’s November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on Friday.

For Australian wheat, USDA now sees 2022-23 production at 34.5 million tonnes (Mt), up 1.5Mt from the October estimate, and exports are now seen as 27Mt, up 1Mt over the month.

WASDE cites above-average rain in Australia over the past month as supportive of crop development and boosting yields following widespread favourable conditions earlier in the growing season.

Conversely, the estimate for Argentina’s wheat crop has been cut in response to continued widespread dry conditions through most of October which have further eroded yield potential, especially in northern areas.

USDA now sees Argentina’s 2022-23 wheat crop at 15.5Mt, down 2Mt from the October figure, with the exports forecast plunging 2.5Mt to 10Mt.

The global wheat outlook for 2022-23 is for increased supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks.

Supplies are projected up 1.3Mt to 1059Mt, based on increases in beginning stocks and production.

World production is raised 1Mt to 782.7Mt as larger production in Australia, Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom more than offsets declines in Argentina and the European Union.

Global feed and residual wheat use is raised 900,000t as increases in the EU, South Korea, the Philippines, and Vietnam more than offset a decline in India.

However, the estimate for global food, seed and industrial wheat consumption is down 1.5Mt, primarily on decreases for Bangladesh and Indonesia.

The global forecast for wheat trade is up 300,000t to a record 208.7Mt, primarily on higher exports from Australia, Kazakhstan, and the UK that more than offset a reduction in exports by Argentina.

Projected global ending stocks are also up 300,000t to 267.8Mt, with increases for Australia and India and a decrease for the EU accounting for most of the change.

Lift for Australian barley

In estimates for coarse grains, USDA has lifted its forecast for Australia’s 2022-23 barley exports by 500,000t to 7.2Mt for barley, with production now at 12.7Mt, also up 500,000t.

Conversely, the outlook for Argentina’s barley exports has dropped 500,000t to 3Mt, with the production estimate down 600,000t to 4.5Mt.

Australia is seen as the world’s biggest exporter of barley in 2022-23, ahead of the EU on an unchanged 6.3Mt, and Russia on 5.5Mt, down 500,000t from the figure forecast in October.

On sorghum, USDA has lifted the forecast for Australian exports by 300,000t to 2.4Mt.

USDA’s 2022-23 US corn outlook is for higher production, larger feed and residual use, and greater ending stocks, with supply rising more than use.

Global coarse grain production for 2022-23 is forecast fractionally lower at 1459.5Mt.

Non-US corn production is forecast lower as declines for the EU, South Africa, The Philippines, and Nigeria are partly offset by increases for Angola, Mali, Pakistan, Turkey, and Senegal.

Corn production in the EU is down based on a decline for Hungary. South Africa is reduced based on lower expected area.

Major global trade changes include lower corn exports for South Africa.

Corn imports are reduced for Vietnam, Algeria, and Turkey.

On imports, China is now expected to bring in 9Mt of barley, down 500,000t from the October figure.

Source: USDA

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