WASDE mildly bullish for wheat, neutral for corn: USDA

Grain Central, December 11, 2020

Canada was one of the countries to have an upward revision to its wheat production in the November 2020 WASDE. Photo: Proven Seed

WHEAT markets have found some support in the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) December report.

Global wheat ending stocks were cut by 4 million tonnes (Mt) to 316.5Mt, with US wheat stocks down 170,000t to 23.86Mt.

In its commentary of the December WASDE, Lachstock Consulting said USDA continued to follow the sales reports and market chatter of higher China corn imports.

“It’s still below where we think it ends up, but at 16Mt, it’s a strong lift over the last two months nonetheless,” Lachstock said.

“There were no surprises on beans or corn really; Argentina nudged down a touch, but for the most part is in line with expectations.

“Corn ending stocks continue to shrink.

“Wheat had the most to crow about with global stocks down 4Mt versus last month’s report, coming out of China and the EU, with both seeing higher feeding.

“Figures in the soybean report were neutral, while corn was neutral to mildly bullish, and wheat was mildly bullish also.

Changes to wheat

Global wheat production has lifted 1.3Mt to 773.66Mt.

Unchanged were Argentina on 18Mt, United States on 49.69Mt and Ukraine at 25.5Mt.

Increases came for Canada, up 180,000t to 35.18Mt, and Russia, up 500,000t to 84Mt, while the EU was cut 750,000t to 135.8Mt.

Estimates for Australia were lifted from November, with production up 1.5Mt to 30Mt, and exports up 1Mt to 20Mt.

China’s estimated wheat imports have increased 500,000t to 8.5Mt, and ending stocks were cut 2.5Mt to 161.18Mt, with feed use up 3Mt.

The estimate for Russian wheat exports has lifted 500,00t to 40Mt.

On EU wheat, the estimate for feeding has risen 500,000t to 49Mt, exports are unchanged at 26Mt, and ending stocks have been cut 1.4Mt to 11.6Mt.

Corn mildly bullish

US corn area, yield and carry-out estimates are unchanged, while Chinese corn imports have been lifted 3.5Mt to 16.5Mt.

On Argentina corn, the production estimate for the crop now in the ground has been cut by 1Mt to 49Mt, which has been offset by a 1Mt increase to carry-in, while Brazil’s carry-in has been cut 500,000t.

Ukraine corn production has risen 1Mt to 29.5Mt, while its exports are forecast 1.5Mt higher at 24Mt.

World corn ending stocks have been cut 2.5Mt to 288.96Mt.

Figures for US Sorghum are largely unchanged, with domestic usage cut and exports increased by the same amount.

US soybean area and yield are unchanged, with the crush figure lifted and the carry-out cut by the same amount.

World soybean ending stocks have been cut by 900,000t to 85.64Mt, and the estimate for China soybean imports unchanged at 100Mt.

The production estimate for Argentina’s soybean production has been cut by 1Mt to 50Mt, with the domestic crush down with it; the estimate for Brazil’s soybean production is unchanged.

Source: Lachstock Consulting


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