Markets

WASDE neutral for wheat despite EU, Ukraine cuts

Grain Central, July 13, 2022

The Bavarian Farmers’ Association harvest tour last week put yields at 13pc below those of recent years in the south-east German state. Photo: Bauernverband Bayern

ADJUSTMENTS to USDA’s estimates for wheat have done little to change the global picture revealed in the July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released overnight.

Global wheat production for 2022-23 is seen at 771.6 million tonnes (Mt), down 1.8Mt from the June forecast, with the EU and Ukraine both down 2Mt to 134.1Mt and 19.5Mt respectively, and Argentina down 500,000t to 19.5Mt.

Helping to offset this has been then 500,000t increase for Russian wheat, now seen at 81.5Mt, and a 1.2Mt lift to the US crop, now pencilled in at 48.5Mt.

Based on higher planted area than initial intentions, the estimate for Canada’s new-crop wheat is up 1Mt to 34Mt.

USDA’s estimate for Australia’s new-crop wheat is unchanged at 30Mt, with 24Mt seen in exports.

July WASDE says the 2022-23 global wheat outlook is for fewer supplies, reduced consumption, higher exports, and increased stocks.

In the EU, ongoing dry weather has lowered yield prospects primarily in Spain, Italy, and Germany, while the cut for forecast Ukraine production has come because of a reduction in harvested area as indicated by government statistics.

Projected 2022-23 global wheat trade has been raised 900,000t to 205.5Mt as higher exports from Canada and the US are only partially offset by lower exports from Argentina and the EU.

World consumption is lowered 1.8Mt to 784.2Mt, primarily on reduced feed and residual use in the EU and Ukraine.

USDA has lifted its projected 2022-23 world ending stocks by 700,000t to 267.5Mt, still the lowest seen since 2016-17.

Source: USDA

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