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Forecast Indian wheat exports cut by 2Mt: WASDE

Grain Central, June 13, 2022

India is exporting less wheat due to lower production and its government’s desire to help ensure food security. Photo: News India

FIGURES released on Friday in the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report were largely neutral for grain and bullish for oilseeds.

In wheat, the big changes were India’s 2022-23 wheat exports at 6.5 million tonnes (Mt), down 2Mt from the May estimate due to the Indian Government’s restriction of exports.

USDA has also cuts its forecast for Indian wheat production, now seen at 106Mt, and down 2.5Mt from the May figure due to the impact on grain fill from extreme heat in March and April.

Russia’s 2022-23 production is raised 1Mt to 81Mt based on generally favourable weather conditions for winter.

Russia’s wheat exports are now seen up 1Mt to 40Mt, the second largest on record, and its export prices are more competitive than most other origins.

While Ukraine’s 2021-22 wheat exports are estimated at 19Mt, the nation is expected to ship only 10Mt in 2022-23.

Both Australia and Canada are expected to export 24Mt of wheat in 2022-23, while the EU is pencilled in to ship 36Mt and the US 21.1Mt.

USDA said the outlook for 2022-23 US wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks.

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service has raised winter wheat production based on increases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter wheat more than offsetting a reduction for Hard Red Winter wheat.

The all-wheat US wheat yield is seen at 46.9 bushels per acre, or 3.15t per hectare, up slightly from last month, and the projected 2022-23 season-average US farm price for wheat is unchanged at US$10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 for 2021-22.

The global wheat outlook for 2022-23 is for lower supplies, reduced consumption, fractionally lower trade, and slightly lower ending stocks.

Supplies are decreased by 1.7Mt to 1052.8Mt as India’s lower production has outweighed an increase for Russia.

Projected 2022-23 world consumption is down 1.5Mt to 786Mt,  mainly on lower feed and residual use for India and less food, seed, and industrial use for Sri Lanka and Argentina.

The forecast for 2022-23 global wheat trade has been cut 300,000t to 204.6Mt as lower exports from India are not completely offset by higher exports from Russia and Uzbekistan.

Projected 2022-23 world ending stocks are lowered 200,000t to 266.9Mt, a six-year low.

Coarse grains

USDA’s June outlook for 2022-23 US corn is for larger beginning stocks, mostly reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2021-22, slightly higher use, and increased ending stocks.

Global 2022-23 production of coarse grain is forecast 3.3Mt higher to 1479.2Mt, while this month’s non-US coarse-grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and higher ending stocks relative to last month.

Corn production for Ukraine is seen at 15.65Mt, up 1.5Mt from June, to reflect the Ukrainian Government’s estimate of a larger planted area, but the export forecast is down 200,000t to 10.83Mt.

Barley production is lowered for the EU, mostly on forecast declines for Spain and France that are partially offset by an increase for Germany.

Barley production for Australia and Ukraine is reduced based on declines in area.

Major global trade changes for 2022-23 include larger corn imports for the EU, but reductions for Morocco, Jordan, and Peru.

Barley exports are lowered for Australia, the EU, and Ukraine.

In USDA’s accompanying Foreign Agricultural Service report, the forecast for Australia’s 2022-23 barley production is now seen at 11Mt, down 500,000t from the May estimate.

This is the single biggest contributor to USDA’s 1.7Mt cut to global barley production, now seen at 143.3Mt.

Oilseeds

This month’s US soybean supply and use projections for 2022-23 include lower beginning and ending stocks and higher prices.

Lower beginning stocks reflect increased exports for 2021-22 to reflect the reduced export forecast for Brazil.

The US soybean price is forecast at $14.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month.

Forecast global oilseed production for 2022-23 is down 300,000t to 646.8Mt as lower sunflowerseed is partly offset by higher rapeseed and soybean output.

Sunflowerseed production is lowered and soybean production is raised for Ukraine based on planting progress reports.

In the FAS, USDA has lifted its forecast for Australia’s new-crop rapeseed (canola) production at 5.4Mt, up from 4.7Mt seen in May, based on increased area and slightly higher yield.

WASDE has lifted global 2022-23 soybean ending stocks 900,000t to 100.5Mt, driven mainly by higher beginning stocks for Argentina and Brazil.

Argentina’s 2021-22 soybean production is raised 1.4Mt to 43.4Mt on better-than-expected reported yields, while the estimate for Brazil is up 1Mt to 126Mt on higher area reported for Mato Grosso.

Source: USDA

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