News

ABARES forecasts 32.6Mt wheat, 12.5Mt barley, 5Mt canola

Grain Central, September 7, 2021

A canola crop in South Australia, where ABARES has increased production wheat, barley and canola estimates in its latest Australian Crop Report from preliminary figures released in June. Photo: James Stacey, Strathalbyn

ABARES has forecast Australia’s new-crop wheat production at 32.6 million tonnes (Mt), barley at 12.5Mt and canola at a record 5Mt in its Australian Crop Report September released overnight.

The wheat figure is up 17 per cent from the preliminary estimate released in June of 27.8Mt on the back of increased yield estimates for all mainland states.

This is despite Queensland’s wheat area being down on the June figure because of a late finish to Central Queensland’s grain sorghum season, and its below-average rainfall for the season.

Improved yield outlooks for all states and a modest increase in area in Queensland, Victoria, Tasmania and Western Australia saw the barley production estimate rise 20pc from the 10.4Mt forecast in June, and more than counter a drop in South Australian plantings.

On canola, production estimates have lifted for all mainland states, and the national crop is now expected to be 20pc bigger than the 4.2Mt forecast in June.

A 14pc increase in estimated planted area in NSW and a lift in the forecast yield in WA are the main drivers for the expected increase for canola.

WHEAT PRODUCTION 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Jun estimate 2021-22 Sep estimate
Qld 842,000 418,000 1,103,000 1,450,000 1,763,000
NSW  6,251,000 1,772,000 13,110,000 8,880,000 11,100,000
Vic  3,821,000 3,714,000 4,768,000 3,329,000 3,700,000
Tas  47,000 44,000 56,000 60,000 70,000
SA  4,140,000 2,689,000 4,800,000 4,100,000 4,500,000
WA  8,533,000 5,842,000 9,500,000 10,000,000 11,500,000
TOTAL TONNES  23,634,000 14,479,000 33,337,000 27,819,000 32,633,000

Table 1: Tonnes of wheat produced in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

WHEAT AREA 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Jun estimate 2021-22 Sep estimate
Qld 575,000  441,000  750,000  870,000 750,000
NSW 2,871,000  2,132,000  3,800,000  3,700,000 3,700,000
Vic 1,467,000  1,429,000  1,600,000  1,500,000 1,520,000
Tas 8,000  7,000  10,000  12,000 15,000
SA 1,954,000  1,721,000  2,075,000  2,075,000 2,075,000
WA 4,397,000  4,133,000  4,750,000  4,900,000 4,900,000
TOTAL HECTARES  11,272,000 9,863,000 12,985,000 13,057,000 12,960,000

Table 2: Hectares of wheat planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

BARLEY PRODUCTION 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 estimate 2021-22 Sep estimate
Qld 215,000 80,000 240,000 240,000 377,000
NSW  1,838,000 916,000 3,230,000 2,115,000 2,655,000
Vic 2,486 ,000 3,117,000 2,784,000 1,992,000 2,300,000
Tas  28,000 23,000 39,000 19,000 45,000
SA 2,175 ,000 1,995,000 2,400,000 1,900,000 2,200,000
WA 4,218 ,000 3,996,000 4,400,000 4,100,000 4,900,000
TOTAL TONNES 10,960 ,000 10,127,000 13,093,000 10,366,000 12,477,000

Table 3: Tonnes of barley produced in all Australian states: Source: ABARES

BARLEY AREA 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 estimate 2021-22 Sep estimate
Qld 114,000 80,000 135,000 120,000 130,000
NSW  865,000  885,000  950,000  900,000 900,000
Vic  931,000  1,102,000 870,000 830,000 850,000
Tas  6,000 5,000 7,000 5,000 10,000
SA  930,000 1,061,000 860,000 860,000 850,000
WA  1,726,000 1,907,000 1,600,000 1,530,000 1,600,000
TOTAL HECTARES  4,572,000 5,040,000 4,422,000 4,245,000 4,340,000

Table 4: Hectares of barley planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

CANOLA PRODUCTION 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 estimate 2021-22 Sep estimate
Qld 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 4,000
NSW 737,000 206,000 1,073,000 1,050,000 1,360,000
Vic 752,000 731,000 950,000 734,000 900,000
Tas 3,000 2,000 3,000 5,000 3,000
SA 315,000 241,000 375,000 320,000 370,000
WA 1,577,000 1,117,000 1,650,000 2,100,000 2,400,000
TOTAL TONNES  3,385,000 2,298,000 4,052,000 4,211,000 5,037,000

Table 5: Tonnes of canola produced in all Australian states: Source: ABARES

CANOLA AREA 5yr avg to 2020-21 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 Jun estimate 2021-22 Sep estimate
Qld  1,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 2,000
NSW  586,000 327,000 550,000 700,000 800,000
Vic  428,000 405,000 450,000 500,000 460,000
Tas 1,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 1,000
SA 200,000 153,000 225,000 220,000 230,000
WA  1,262,000 1,148,000 1,150,000 1,550,000 1,550,000
TOTAL HECTARES  2,478,000 2,035,000 2,378,000 2,974,000 3,043,000

Table 6: Hectares of canola planted in all Australian states. Source: ABARES

Source: ABARES

Grain Central: Get our free daily cropping news straight to your inbox – Click here

 

HAVE YOUR SAY

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Your comment will not appear until it has been moderated.
Contributions that contravene our Comments Policy will not be published.

Comments

Get Grain Central's news headlines emailed to you -
FREE!