AUSTRALIA is forecast to produce 36.6 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat, 13.4Mt of barley and 7.3Mt of canola from the winter-crop harvest now under way, according to estimates released today by ABARES in its quarterly Australian Crop and Agricultural Commodities reports.

The wheat figure is up 14pc from the previous estimate released in September of 32.2Mt, and breaks the national production record set in 2021-22 of 36.3Mt.

The canola estimate is up 11pc from 6.6Mt forecast in September, and breaks last year’s record of 6.8Mt.

While barley is up 10pc on the previous estimate of 12.3Mt, it is expected to be fourth-largest crop on record for barley, with its area being down on last year’s compared with increases for wheat and canola.

In commentary tied to the crop report and to ABARES December quarter Agricultural Commodities Report also out today, the national forecaster said  Australian agriculture is still on track for an outstanding 12 months, despite the impact of the devastating floods in the eastern states.

“The gross value of agricultural production is forecast to be a near-record $85 billion in 2022-23, just shy of the record set the previous year,” ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said.

“The winter crop is forecast to be the second largest on record at over 62Mt.”

Dr Greenville said livestock production was expected to hold steady, contributing $34B to the national total.

“Another bumper year combined with high commodity prices means Australia’s agricultural exports are forecast to break records at over $72B in 2022-23.”

Dr Greenville said while spring rain has impacted production, yields and quality in some parts of the country, some states are experiencing their best winter crops on record.

“Crops in Western Australia and South Australia benefitted the most from spring conditions, with total production in both states forecast to reach new record levels.

“Total production in Queensland is forecast to reach the second highest on record, despite parts of the Darling Downs missing out on plantings after being impacted by the floods.

“In other parts of the country, the results are mixed with both flooding and waterlogging impacting winter-crop production.”

ABARES data shows a record amount of crop was planted in Victoria this year.

“At the state level, high yields in the Mallee and the Wimmera will offset crop losses in central and northern border regions.

“However, the full picture of damage to crops from extensive waterlogging remains an unknown.

Total production for New South Wales has been revised down by 2Mt since the September crop report as record spring rainfall followed above-average rain in August.

“Unfortunately, NSW has borne the brunt of the damage from the spring rains and subsequent floods.

“Considerable uncertainty remains over winter-crop harvest progress and grain quality in NSW and Victoria given ongoing high rainfall, which could lead to downgrades in production value.

“Harvests in Victoria and NSW are likely to run well into summer.”

The gross value of crop production is forecast to remain at near record levels in 2022–23 at almost $51B, driven mainly by forecast near-record crop production and high prices for grains and oilseeds.

The gross values of wheat and barley production are forecast to reach record highs, both surpassing the previous record levels reached in 2021-22, while the gross value of canola production is forecast to be the second highest on record in 2022-23.

WHEAT TONNES	2021-22	2022-23 Sep	2022-23 Dec
Qld	1,825,000	1,746,000	2,150,000
NSW	12,765,000	10,188,000	9,140,000
Vic	4,172,000	4,371,000	5,370,000
SA	4,700,000	4,840,000	6,820,000
WA	12,800,000	11,000,000	13,000,000
Tas	85,000	87,200	87,200
TOTAL	36,347,000	32,145,000	36,567,200

Table 1: Australian wheat production estimates in tonnes and by state. Source: ABARES

WHEAT AREA	2021-22	2022-23 Sep	2022-23 Dec
Qld	829,000	746,000	830,000
NSW	3,700,000	3,600,000	3,450,000
Vic	1,520,000	1,550,000	1,550,000
SA	2,075,000	2,200,000	2,200,000
WA	4,900,000	4,950,000	4,950,000
Tas	15,000	16,000	16,000
TOTAL	13,039,000	13,046,000	12,996,000

Table 2: Australian wheat area in hectares and by state.  Source: ABARES

BARLEY TONNES	2021-22	2022-23 Sep	2022-23 Dec
Qld	391,000	346,000	350,000
NSW	3,015,000	2,460,000	2,020,000
Vic	2,694,000	2,559,000	2,910,000
SA	2,250,000	2,034,000	2,660,000
WA	5,500,000	4,800,000	5,400,000
Tas	56,000	55,000	55,000
TOTAL	13,906,000	12,199,000	13,395,000

Table 3: Australian barley production estimates in tonnes and by state.  Source: ABARES

BARLEY AREA	2021-22	2022-23 Sep	2022-23 Dec
Qld	147,000	133,000	130,000
NSW	900,000	820,000	740,000
Vic	910,000	850,000	850,000
SA	850,000	830,000	830,000
WA	1,600,000	1,550,000	1,550,000
Tas	10,000	10,000	10,000
TOTAL	4,417,000	4,183,000	4,110,000

Table 4: Australian barley area estimates in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES

CANOLA TONNES	2021-22	2022-23 Sep	2022-23 Dec
Qld	4,000	3,100	10,000
NSW	1,800,000	1,710,000	1,300,000
Vic	1,300,000	1,353,000	1,400,000
SA	500,000	464,000	610,000
WA	3,150,000	3,100,000	4,000,000
Tas	8,000	10,800	10,800
TOTAL	6,762,000	6,627,000	7,330,800

Table 5: Australian canola production estimates in tonnes and by state. * Denotes updated figure not available at time of publication. Source: ABARES

CANOLA AREA	2021-22	2022-23 Sep	2022-23 Dec
Qld	2,000	2,400	5,000
NSW	800,000	900,000	850,000
Vic	600,000	615,000	615,000
SA	260,000	290,000	290,000
WA	1,550,000	1,800,000	1,900,000
Tas	3,000	5,000	5,000
TOTAL	3,215,000	3,605,000	3,665,000

Table 6: Australian canola area estimates by state in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES

Source: ABARES