ABARES forecasts record wheat, canola crops

Grain Central December 6, 2022

Harvesting canola around gilgais at Burcher near Forbes, NSW. Photo: Maxwell Knight, Bengalee

AUSTRALIA is forecast to produce 36.6 million tonnes (Mt) of wheat, 13.4Mt of barley and 7.3Mt of canola from the winter-crop harvest now under way, according to estimates released today by ABARES in its quarterly Australian Crop and Agricultural Commodities reports.

The wheat figure is up 14pc from the previous estimate released in September of 32.2Mt, and breaks the national production record set in 2021-22 of 36.3Mt.

The canola estimate is up 11pc from 6.6Mt forecast in September, and breaks last year’s record of 6.8Mt.

While barley is up 10pc on the previous estimate of 12.3Mt, it is expected to be fourth-largest crop on record for barley, with its area being down on last year’s compared with increases for wheat and canola.

In commentary tied to the crop report and to ABARES December quarter Agricultural Commodities Report also out today, the national forecaster said  Australian agriculture is still on track for an outstanding 12 months, despite the impact of the devastating floods in the eastern states.

“The gross value of agricultural production is forecast to be a near-record $85 billion in 2022-23, just shy of the record set the previous year,” ABARES executive director Jared Greenville said.

“The winter crop is forecast to be the second largest on record at over 62Mt.”

Dr Greenville said livestock production was expected to hold steady, contributing $34B to the national total.

“Another bumper year combined with high commodity prices means Australia’s agricultural exports are forecast to break records at over $72B in 2022-23.”

Dr Greenville said while spring rain has impacted production, yields and quality in some parts of the country, some states are experiencing their best winter crops on record.

“Crops in Western Australia and South Australia benefitted the most from spring conditions, with total production in both states forecast to reach new record levels.

“Total production in Queensland is forecast to reach the second highest on record, despite parts of the Darling Downs missing out on plantings after being impacted by the floods.

“In other parts of the country, the results are mixed with both flooding and waterlogging impacting winter-crop production.”

ABARES data shows a record amount of crop was planted in Victoria this year.

“At the state level, high yields in the Mallee and the Wimmera will offset crop losses in central and northern border regions.

“However, the full picture of damage to crops from extensive waterlogging remains an unknown.

Total production for New South Wales has been revised down by 2Mt since the September crop report as record spring rainfall followed above-average rain in August.

“Unfortunately, NSW has borne the brunt of the damage from the spring rains and subsequent floods.

“Considerable uncertainty remains over winter-crop harvest progress and grain quality in NSW and Victoria given ongoing high rainfall, which could lead to downgrades in production value.

“Harvests in Victoria and NSW are likely to run well into summer.”

The gross value of crop production is forecast to remain at near record levels in 2022–23 at almost $51B, driven mainly by forecast near-record crop production and high prices for grains and oilseeds.

The gross values of wheat and barley production are forecast to reach record highs, both surpassing the previous record levels reached in 2021-22, while the gross value of canola production is forecast to be the second highest on record in 2022-23.

WHEAT TONNES 2021-22 2022-23 Sep 2022-23 Dec
Qld 1,825,000 1,746,000 2,150,000
NSW 12,765,000 10,188,000 9,140,000
Vic 4,172,000 4,371,000 5,370,000
SA 4,700,000 4,840,000 6,820,000
WA 12,800,000 11,000,000 13,000,000
Tas 85,000 87,200 87,200
TOTAL 36,347,000 32,145,000 36,567,200

Table 1: Australian wheat production estimates in tonnes and by state. Source: ABARES

2021-22 2022-23 Sep 2022-23 Dec
Qld 829,000 746,000 830,000
NSW 3,700,000 3,600,000 3,450,000
Vic 1,520,000 1,550,000 1,550,000
SA 2,075,000 2,200,000 2,200,000
WA 4,900,000 4,950,000 4,950,000
Tas 15,000 16,000 16,000
TOTAL 13,039,000 13,046,000 12,996,000

Table 2: Australian wheat area in hectares and by state.  Source: ABARES

BARLEY TONNES 2021-22 2022-23 Sep 2022-23 Dec
Qld 391,000 346,000 350,000
NSW 3,015,000 2,460,000 2,020,000
Vic 2,694,000 2,559,000 2,910,000
SA 2,250,000 2,034,000 2,660,000
WA 5,500,000 4,800,000 5,400,000
Tas 56,000 55,000 55,000
TOTAL 13,906,000 12,199,000 13,395,000

Table 3: Australian barley production estimates in tonnes and by state.  Source: ABARES

2021-22 2022-23 Sep 2022-23 Dec
Qld 147,000 133,000 130,000
NSW 900,000 820,000 740,000
Vic 910,000 850,000 850,000
SA 850,000 830,000 830,000
WA 1,600,000 1,550,000 1,550,000
Tas 10,000 10,000 10,000
TOTAL 4,417,000 4,183,000 4,110,000

Table 4: Australian barley area estimates in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES

CANOLA TONNES 2021-22 2022-23 Sep 2022-23 Dec
Qld 4,000 3,100 10,000
NSW 1,800,000 1,710,000 1,300,000
Vic 1,300,000 1,353,000 1,400,000
SA 500,000 464,000 610,000
WA 3,150,000 3,100,000 4,000,000
Tas 8,000 10,800 10,800
TOTAL 6,762,000 6,627,000 7,330,800

Table 5: Australian canola production estimates in tonnes and by state. * Denotes updated figure not available at time of publication. Source: ABARES

2021-22 2022-23 Sep 2022-23 Dec
Qld 2,000 2,400 5,000
NSW 800,000 900,000 850,000
Vic 600,000 615,000 615,000
SA 260,000 290,000 290,000
WA 1,550,000 1,800,000 1,900,000
Tas 3,000 5,000 5,000
TOTAL 3,215,000 3,605,000 3,665,000

Table 6: Australian canola area estimates by state in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES

Source: ABARES


Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Your comment will not appear until it has been moderated.
Contributions that contravene our Comments Policy will not be published.


Get Grain Central's news headlines emailed to you -