News

ABARES lifts wheat, canola estimates, trims barley

Grain Central, March 4, 2024

Harvesting in Western Australia’s Esperance Zone last year. Photo: Lyndon Mickel

AUSTRALIA’S national forecaster has finalised its estimates for the most recent winter-crop harvest, with wheat production seen at 25.96 million tonnes (Mt), barley at 10.8Mt, and canola at 5.68Mt.

The figures have been released today in ABARES quarterly Australian Crop Report.

“This reflects improved production in Victoria and New South Wales which is estimated to more than offset reduced production in Western Australia,” ABARES said in the report.

It said the national winter-crop harvest progressed earlier and at a much faster pace than in recent years.

“The earlier start to harvest was driven by hot and dry finishing conditions in Queensland, northern NSW, South Australia and Western Australia.

“Widespread rainfall events in November and early summer resulted in some harvest delays across major cropping regions in central and southern NSW, Victoria and parts of South Australia.

“The quality profile of the national wheat crop was mixed with a higher proportion of wheat making high-protein grades compared to the three previous La Niña years, particularly in Western Australia and South Australia.

“However, wheat in Victoria and parts of NSW was heavily weighted to the lower protein Australian Standard White grade, with some quality downgrades due to wet harvest conditions.”

WHEAT TNS 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Dec 2023-24 Mar
Qld 2,222,000 2,305,000 1,100,000 1,080,000
NSW 12,029,000 10,260,000 6,600,000 7,095,000
Vic 4,246,000 5,393,000 4,619,000 5,200,000
SA 4,750,000 7,350,000 4,900,000 4,800,000
WA 12,919,000 13,800,000 8,150,000 7,700,000
Tas 70,000 82,500 85,000 85,000
Total 36,236,000 39,190,500 25,454,000 25,960,000

Table 1: Australian wheat production estimates in tonnes and by state. Source: ABARES

WHEAT HA 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Dec 2023-24 Mar
Qld 941,000 980,000 800,000 720,000
NSW 3,608,000 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,300,000
Vic 1,445,000 1,500,000 1,540,000 1,540,000
SA 2,008,000 2,200,000 2,200,000 2,200,000
WA 4,718,000 4,750,000 4,650,000 4,650,000
Tas 9,300 15,000 12,000 12,000
Total 12,729,300 13,045,000 12,610,000 12,422,000

Table 2: Australian wheat area in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES

BARLEY TNS 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Dec 2023-24 Mar
Qld 617,000 403,000 280,000 300,000
NSW 3,562,000 2,278,000 1,745,000 1,920,000
Vic 2,271,000 2,896,000 2,953,000 2,780,000
SA 2,146,000 2,900,000 2,100,000 2,050,000
WA 5,758,000 5,600,000 4,000,000 3,700,000
Tas 24,000 60,500 50,000 50,000
Total 14,378,000 14,137,500 11,128,000 10,800,000

Table 3: Australian barley production estimates in tonnes and by state. Source: ABARES

BARLEY HA 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Dec 2023-24 Mar
Qld 207,000 136,000 150,000 150,000
NSW 1,159,000 780,000 800,000 800,000
Vic 870,000 820,000 830,000 830,000
SA 970,000 830,000 800,000 800,000
WA 1,884,000 1,550,000 1,600,000 1,600,000
Tas 4,300 11,000 7,000 7,000
Total 5,094,300 4,127,000 4,187,000 4,187,000

Table 4: Australian barley area in hectares and by state. Source: ABARES

CANOLA TNS 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Dec 2023-24 Mar
Qld 4,700 10,000 4,000 4,000
NSW 2,114,000 1,800,000 1,305,000 1,345,000
Vic 1,303,000 1,383,000 1,202,000 1,260,000
SA 435,000 770,000 510,000 570,000
WA 2,954,000 4,300,000 2,500,000 2,500,000
Tas 9,800 10,000 2,000 2,000
Total 6,820,500 8,273,000 5,523,000 5,681,000

Table 5: Australian canola production estimates in tonnes and by state. Source: ABARES

CANOLA HA 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Dec 2023-24 Mar
Qld 2,200 4,700 4,000 4,000*
NSW 941,000 900,000 840,000 840,000
Vic 569,000 600,000 550,000 550,000
SA 222,000 290,000 290,000 290,000
WA 1,513,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,800,000
Tas 3,600 5,000 3,000 3,000
Total 3,250,800 3,899,700 3,487,000 3,487,000

Table 6: Australian canola area in hectares and by state.  Source: ABARES

In the accompanying, March 2024 Agricultural Commodities Report, ABARES said the nominal value of agricultural exports is forecast to fall by 14 percent to reach $67 billion in the year to 30 June 2024.

This fall is largely driven by declining domestic crop production and softer international prices for most crop commodities.

Supply chain disruptions that have been a substantial issue over the past few years are expected to be less prevalent and the price volatility caused by the war in Ukraine is also easing, as there is less
uncertainty about the Black Sea corridor and Russia and Ukraine’s ability to export grain.

Global wheat production is expected to be higher than average in 2023-24, putting downward pressure on prices, which are forecast to fall 14pc.

The lower prices and lower production volumes are forecast to see Australia’s wheat exports fall by $7B in 2023-24.

Source: ABARES

HAVE YOUR SAY

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Your comment will not appear until it has been moderated.
Contributions that contravene our Comments Policy will not be published.

Comments

Get Grain Central's news headlines emailed to you -
FREE!