A crop of Pioneer A50 sorghum being desiccated ahead of harvest at Brookstead on the Darling Downs. Photo: James Bailey

ABARES has lifted its estimates for Australia’s sorghum and cotton crops and cut its rice estimate in its quarterly Australian Crop Report out today.

Australia’s total summer crop production is forecast to reach 4.7 million tonnes (Mt), an increase of 300,000t on ABARES December report, but down 1 percent on the 2024-25 total.

The output still remains 28pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

The national sorghum estimate now stands at 2.3Mt, an increase of 200,000t on the December report, and cotton lint production is expected to hit 1.1Mt, up 100,000t from the previous forecast.

Rice production is predicted to reach 444,000t, down 5000t from the December figure, driven by lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations in New South Wales.

According to ABARES, this upward revision in sorghum and cotton production was due to “favourable seasonal conditions across the majority of summer cropping regions”.

Strong yields support sorghum production

Late spring and early summer rainfall has boosted soil moisture and late plantings of sorghum in NSW and Queensland.

Overall production of the crop is expected to be 5pc higher than the 2024-25 crop, and 37pc above the 10-year average to 2024-25.

ABARES has forecast Queensland to produce 1.5Mt of sorghum from the crop now being harvested, up 1.3pc from 2024-25, despite a 4pc decline in area planted to the crop.

“Sorghum yields are forecast to be higher than previously forecast and more than offset declines in area planted to sorghum,” the report said.

“Expected higher yields reflect favourable conditions throughout the season for southern cropping regions, with well above average yields expected across the Darling Downs.

“Below-average rainfall in January 2025 discouraged increased planting of sorghum in Central Queensland, with areas becoming too wet to plant following high rainfall totals in February 2025.”

New South Wales is estimated to produce 800,000t of sorghum, up 13pc jump from 2024-25, even with a forecast area reduction of 3pc.

“Expansion in area planted to sorghum was limited by large winter-crop plantings; however, favourable rainfall and stored soil moisture at time of planting supported an above-average planted area.”

Cotton boosted by Qld gains

ABARES has predicted a drop of 8pc for NSW cotton lint production in 2024-25 to 719,000t.

Although area planted to cotton remained stable, yields are expected to fall from near record levels in 2024-25.

Cotton production in Qld is expected to increase 29pc on last season to 378,000t, driven by a rise in area planted of 32pc.

“[F]avourable spring rainfall allowed for timely planting in dryland growing regions, while improved water availability supported higher irrigated cotton planting.”

Rice on decline

Australia’s major rice producer, NSW, is forecast to produce 441,000t of the crop in 2025-26, a drop of 29pc on 2024-25.

ABARES has reported that this decline was driven by a reduction in the area planted of 24.6pc.

“Lower global prices and reduced general security water allocations across the Murrumbidgee are expected to have led to lower rice plantings.

“Average to above-average seasonal conditions over summer are expected to support average yields.”

Source: ABARES

NOTE: Crop years refer to marketing years rather than the months over which the crop is grown.