Many canola crops in NSW are in good shape and coming into flower. Photo: Michael McCormack MP, Federal Member for Riverina

THE Australian Oilseeds Federation has forecast Australia’s new-crop canola at 5,435,000 tonnes from 3,240,000ha, according to estimates in its periodic crop report released this week.

The production estimate is the first issued by AOF this season, and has added 36,000ha to its initial area estimate released in early June of 3,204,000ha.

Both figures are below AOF’s estimates for the 2023-24 crop at 5,802,000t from 3,596,000ha, and are slightly ahead of ABARES most recent estimates released June 4 of 5,385,000t from 3,167,000ha.

In the report, AOF said the season to date has been somewhat unseasonal, with areas used to predictable and useful falls of rain experiencing very dry conditions, while some of the typically drier regions have had good rain.

Specifically, the Victorian Wimmera, southern New South Wales, South Australia’s Eyre Peninsula, and Western Australia’s Esperance zone have suffered from a dry start and below-average rainfall throughout the season.

In contrast, central northern, and western NSW and WA’s Geraldton zone have had above-average rainfall.

“Despite the poor start in some key areas, the better areas have performed very well to date and are looking promising for high yields, offsetting to some degree the losses elsewhere,” the report said.

Australian canola prices have climbed since planting, but have recently felt the weight of the large US soybean crop on the oilseed complex.

“Potential canola shortfalls in Canada…and Europe, however, may provide a solid floor for Australian canola in the coming months.”

The report says Canadian production has had a reprieve, with a late turnaround in production estimates, despite hotter and drier conditions during the summer.

“Projections vary, but consensus tend to cluster around 19.5-19.7 million tonnes (Mt), up by more than 1Mt on the last two years.

“Importantly, increased crushing capacity coming on line in Canada has impacted the attraction of exports, such that Canada will tend to favour higher-value destinations, including the EU.”

In Europe, another hot and dry summer, combined with flooding rain in cropping areas of France, has impacted canola yields, with harvest volumes down 1.3Mt from last year to 18.5Mt.

“France’s production is the major contributor to the decline, being down 400,000t as very wet weather early in the season impacted establishment and subsequent yield.

“Hot weather at flowering knocked 200,000t off German estimates versus last year.

“Reduced production in the smaller production states of Romania, Hungary, Latvia and Czech Republic also contributed to the reduction in production, which was unable to be offset by slight increases in Slovakia, Ireland, and Denmark.

“European rapeseed production has been on a downward trend over the past decade as restrictions on chemical use and particularly hot summers have impacted yield.”

“Ukraine production is also down on last year, projected to be 3.5Mt, down 1Mt on last year.”

Following is a round-up of conditions by state:

New South Wales

The early good start to the NSW season was followed by good widespread rain during May, which helped to build good soil-moisture profiles.

Crops commenced flowering in the far southwest in early July followed by crops in north and central NSW later in the month.

Crops are generally on track to achieve average to above-average yields, fueled by very good soil-moisture levels, although frost is a significant risk to the more advanced crops.

The late and highly variable seasonal break in the southern and south-western districts, followed by intermittent rainfall, has been damaging to these crops.

Uneven crops are well behind typical growth stages, so ongoing favourable seasonal conditions are essential to even achieve below-average yield potential in these areas.

Green peach aphid has been present and supported by the warmer winter, particularly on the Central West slopes, where turnip yellow virus has appeared.

The promising outlook has encouraged growers to invest further in nutrition and disease protection.

Victoria

Victoria’s season started with a very dry May and sub-optimal moisture reserves.

Many crops were sown dry, with little if any decent rain in the ensuing months, particularly in the Western District, and some crops were abandoned by July.

The Wimmera and southern Mallee fared slightly better, with close to average June and July rainfall enabling well-established crops to benefit.

Cooler-than-average weather has provided some respite for crops with reduced transpiration.

While crops in all areas, with the exception of Gippsland, are in need of replenishing rain, the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook for neutral to wetter conditions has boosted grower confidence and  encouraged top-dressing where crops look promising.

If wetter conditions and forecast warmer-than-average temperatures materialise, disease pressure may increase if there is a burst of biomass growth.

South Australia

South Australia’s season had a very poor start, with much drier-than-average conditions in all growing regions since before sowing.

Despite a wetter-than-average summer, February onwards was very dry, with less than 10mm in growing regions in both April and May.

Many growers reported a reduction in planned or actual area sown to canola, with most crops sown dry.

Rain in June did trigger germination, albeit patchy, and the crop is now running late, at only the 4-6 leaf stage by end of July.

The continued rain in July and into August has boosted crop biomass, and encouraged growers in selected areas to top-dress their crops.

Yield projection has been pulled back to 1.5t/ha from the recent trend of 1.8-2.t/ha.

Western Australia

Following a hot and dry summer in WA, and the absence of any real autumn break in April-May, growers pulled back on their canola plans with an area reduction of 10 percent.

This increased further as crops were abandoned and resown to other crops.

Good rain in July and into August was too late for some crops, but for those that were able to establish, this provided a good opportunity to build biomass.

Later-sown crops in the Geraldton zone have benefited from the July-August rains.

The warmer weather, combined with the biomass boost, has led to increased pressure from pests, especially green peach aphid and diamond back moth, mostly in the Kwinana zone.

Esperance continues to have unseasonally dry conditions, with the reduced canola area expected to yield well below average.

Source: Australian Oilseeds Federation