Canola crops in NSW and WA are starting to flower. Photo: Rob Presser, Young, NSW, Kalyx Australia

THE AUSTRALIAN Oilseeds Federation has released its estimates for the 2025-26 canola crop at 5.97 million tonnes (Mt) from 3.34M hectares.

Both figures are above the standing estimates released early June by ABARES of 5,712,300t from 3.38Mha.

AOF sees Australia’s new-crop canola area as being up 2.8 percent on last season, reflecting greater grower confidence in canola in New South Wales and Western Australia.

In its report, AOF said challenging conditions persisted into July for many regions, when low subsoil moisture and above-average temperatures continued to constrain early crop development.

“While the outlook for parts of WA and NSW remain positive due to welcome rainfall, much of the southern growing zone remains dry,” AOF said in the report.

“Crops have failed to establish and, in some cases, have had to be resown.

“Despite these challenges, early sown crops are progressing rapidly in the warmer conditions, with canopy closure already reported in several districts.”

“Nationally, yields will be heavily dependent on rainfall through August and September.”

Table 1: Area and production estimates from industry, NSW DPIRD, GIWA, and Lachstock consulting. Source: AOF

Following is AOF’s round-up of conditions by state:

New South Wales

Northern NSW continues to enjoy a favourable start to the season, with warm soil temperatures and good early rainfall supporting strong establishment and early biomass accumulation.

Grower confidence has been reflected in multiple urea applications, along with fungicides to maximum the season’s yield potential.

Central NSW crops are more variable but improving, with most now flowering.

Dual-purpose crops have now been locked up and are recovering well with several rain events.

In southern NSW, where earlier conditions were marginal, many growers opted to dry sow and crops germinated only after mid-June rain.

Healthy rainfall in July has helped to stabilise prospects in parts of the Riverina and south-west slopes.

Victoria

Canola prospects in Vic remain subdued following a false break around Anzac Day.

Most crops were sown dry, but widespread rain over the June long weekend – Vic’s
largest falls in two years – triggered germination.

However, cold and frosty conditions led to slow emergence, and in the north-central region crops are 6-8 weeks behind, with development stages ranging from two-leaf to early elongation.

In the north-west, canola has been replaced with vetch and oats, and with barley in other regions.

While some areas are progressing well, the crop’s success across the state will hinge on favourable conditions through late winter and early spring.

South Australia

SA’s canola crop remains under pressure following a dry start, with most of the
state experiencing severe to record rainfall deficiencies.

The crop area is estimated to be down 9pc on last year and, while late May rainfall enabled germination, establishment remains marginal in many areas.

The Mallee received its first significant rainfall in late July, but subsoil moisture is absent and, as a result, crops have low biomass and shallow roots.

About 40pc of the state’s canola is on Eyre Peninsula.

The South East looks the best placed for a favourable finish, while the rest of the state is relying on a soft spring to maintain current potential.

Western Australia

The WA crop is progressing well following timely rainfall and above-average temperatures in June and July.

In the Geraldton zone, earlier dry sowing has been offset by excellent establishment, with many crops being weeks ahead of average for this point in the season.

Growers have responded with widespread topdressing, particularly in the high
rainfall areas.

Kwinana North Midlands is on track for average to above-average yields, while
in the south and north-east, conditions are more variable, with patchy rainfall, split
germinations and some resowing.

Albany received an early break, with full soil moisture in the south, along with a risk of waterlogging in the Franklin area, and excellent yield potential in the west.

The Lakes Region saw widespread rain, but some crops on the north-east and south-west margins are less advanced and will require timely falls to reach their potential.

The Esperance zone is looking particularly promising, with early flowering and close to record potential yields, aided by 70mm of rain and extensive topdressing activity.

Waterlogging risks remain in coastal and high rainfall areas.

Overall, crop progress is well ahead of average in many zones but will depend on a
favourable spring finish.

Source: Australian Oilseeds Federation