
Pacific Seeds canola technical specialist Justin Kudnig, pictured last year at a trial site at Boorowa on the south-west sloeps of NSW, is reporting strong early sales of seed, particularly in NSW and WA.
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s announcement that imports from Canada are slated to cop a 25-percent tariff has delivered a broadside to Canada’s canola growers.
Now likely to be implemented next month, the tariff will impact Canada’s biggest market for crushed canola which in 2023 was the destination for 3 million tonnes (Mt) of Canada’s canola oil, and 3.5Mt of meal.
Friday’s joint release from the Canola Council of Canada (CCC) and the Canadian Canola Growers Association puts it plainly.
“Tariffs will have devastating impacts on farmers, input providers, canola crushing activities and exports of canola seed, oil and meal,” CCC president and chief executive officer Chris Davison said.
Canada’s canola crush capacity is now near 12Mt per annum, and in 2023, Canada exported 7Mt of seed, 3.15Mt of oil and 5.4Mt of meal in total to all destinations.
In 2023, and after a three-year trade stoush, Canada exported 4.6Mt of canola and 1.8Mt of meal to China, with Japan and Mexico also significant seed markets for around 1Mt per annum each.
China’s return as a volume customer for Canadian seed may take on added significance if Canada’s exports to the US fall away as the result of the tariff, and as Canada’s own tariff on Chinese electric vehicles adds a layer to increasingly distorted markets.
Australian growers process signals
Behind Canada, Australia is the world’s second-biggest canola exporter, with Europe’s biofuel sector its biggest customer.
The United States Department of Agriculture in its January 2025 Foreign Agricultural Service report has estimated Australia’s canola exports in the year to September at 4.55Mt, well behind Canada’s 7.25Mt in its year to July.
ABARES figures show a drop in the current year for Australian canola exports from its three biggest ever production years of 5.6Mt in 2021-22, 6.4Mt in 2022-23, and 6.1Mt in 2023-24.
In Western Australia and New South Wales, canola is the major crop grown in winter rotation with cereals, and its strong pricing relative to wheat made it the preferred cash crop of 2024-25.
Woodside Commodities managing director and specialist oilseeds broker Hamish Steele-Park said tight Canadian stocks will minimise the possible flow-on effect of the US tariff.
“The US tariff could impact future Canadian oil sales to the US, but the Canadian canola S&D looks tight and Canada will need to reduce exports to not run out of seed,” Mr Steele-Park said.
Latest Canadian Government figures estimate carry-out from the current crop year at 1.25Mt, down from 2.75Mt in 2023-24, but above the 950,000t forecast for 2025-26.
“The Canadian crush is robust year to date, and the canola export program is running way ahead of last year at almost double the amount, so I think Canada will have limited capacity to sell into other markets.
“The reason Canadian canola export pace is so strong is the price of Canadian canola is the lowest globally on a FOB basis.”
In its report released January 20, the Canadian Government said the benchmark price of No. 1 track Vancouver was forecast to be the lowest since 2019-20.
The report said the impact of “proposed policy changes” from the Trump administration, the strength of Chinese buying, speed of farmer deliveries and the crush, and weather on the Brazil and Argentinian soy crops were all factors to watch.
However, Canada’s 2025-26 canola area and production look like being the smallest in recent years, with area forecast at 8.5 million hectares, down 408,000ha from 2024-25, and production at 17.5Mt, down from 17.8Mt this year, and 19.2Mt in 2023-24.
Australian area seen as solid
Mr Steele-Park said new-crop values are sending positive signs to Australian growers getting ready to plant canola, ideally in April and May.
“The price of new-crop canola in Australia is still over double the price of wheat, so it should encourage growers to plant canola over cereals.”
As quoted in today’s Lachstock Research daily market wire, canola is sitting at around $760/t, compared with wheat at $345/t, although it must be noted the average national wheat yield is more than double that of canola.
Pacific Seeds canola technical specialist Justin Kudnig said growers were likely to stick to their normal rotations if prices stay put, and increase canola area if a rise of $50/t or more is seen.
While low global oilseed ending stocks are a given, Mr Kudnig said the size of South America’s soybean crop, and emerging tariffs, were the big uncertainties.
“I don’t think anyone has the final answer…so farmers in Australia will be watching closely, and will continue with their rotations as intended.”
He said Pacific Seeds was well stocked with hybrid canola seed featuring a range of herbicide technologies, and the two states that enjoyed the best of the 2024-25 season were showing the strongest demand at present.
“We’re noticing seed sales have increased in WA and NSW.”
According to ABARES, Australia last year planted 3.3Mha of canola which yielded 5.6Mt, and if a general break arrives for southern Australia at planting time, Mr Kudnig can see upside.

Pacific Seeds canola breeder Willow Liddle at a trial site at Streatham in Victoria’s Western District. Photo: Justin Kudnig
“Canola has solidified itself as Australia’s biggest and most successful oilseed, and a 2-2.5Mha crop is the base level; we could see it go to 3.5-4Mha.”
Mr Kudnig said the availability of hybrids, included “stacked” varieties tolerant to more than one herbicide, and growers’ confidence in them, are what has created the potential upside in area and production.
“Over the past 10 years, you’ve seen a monumental shift from open-pollinated varieties to hydrids…that lift the average yield.”
Grain Industry Association of WA Oilseeds Council chair Michael Lamond said it was “way too early to make a call” on WA’s new-crop planting of canola, but trends of recent years can be expected to continue.
“One of the findings from last year, and earlier, is that hybrid canola is taking off,” Mr Lamond said.
It did surprisingly well in many parts of WA, despite the less-than-ideal season.
“My hunch is I don’t think the influence of low-rainfall areas is going to be as great as it was; five years ago, we’d get big swings in them, and now we don’t.”
Grain Central: Get our free news straight to your inbox – Click here
HAVE YOUR SAY