WORLD wheat stocks got another boost from the USDA world agricultural supply and demand report (WASDE) this week as analysts ‘found’ more wheat in the balance sheet, both in terms of revising upwards previous year crop-size for some countries and reducing estimates of usage for other countries.

Statistical revisions have led to USDA’s April projection of world wheat 2017/18 ending stock rising 2 million tonnes (Mt) to a record 271 million tonnes (Table 1).

Table 1: USDA April 2018 wheat estimates 2017/18: changes refer to difference between April and March projections.

Coarse grains year-on-year stock shrinks

USDA projections (Table 2) for coarse grains comprise data for corn, sorghum, barley rye, oats, millet and mixed grains.  Revisions in Brazil and Argentina crop size caused the greatest change in coarse grains estimates.

World stock of coarse grain is forecast to decline 39Mt, a reduction of around 15 per cent over the year.  This would be the smallest world stock of coarse grains since 2013/14.

Table 2: USDA April 2018 coarse grains estimates 2017/18: changes refer to difference between April and March projections.