A crop of Brighton winter wheat under inspection at a pop-up field day at Kojonup this week. Photo: Floyd Sullivan, AGT

THE Grain Industry Association of Western Australia estimates WA’s 2024-25 winter crop at 16.858 million tonnes (Mt), down 580,000t, or 3 percent, from 17.438Mt forecast last month.

In its latest crop report released today, GIWA report author Michael Lamond said the lack of spring rain across WA’s growing regions has bitten into yield prospects.

“The state’s crop was in very good shape up until recently, and the potential tonnage was climbing from the previous GIWA Crop Report in early August to a point where we were looking at a very good year,” Mr Lamond said.

“However, the complete lack of finishing rains has now put a question mark over final tonnage.”

Mr Lamond said areas in the southern regions could recover grain yield potential if they receive 20mm of rain in the next two weeks.

“Without this, the total tonnage for the state could be closer to 15Mt million tonnes rather than 17 million tonnes as it stands now.

“Grain yields have started to slide in many regions of the state, with the large area of wheat the most affected.”

WA’s wheat area is around 500,000ha bigger than it was last year, and most of this increase is on fallow.

“Nearly 900,000ha of crop has been planted on fallow, which is three times the area planted on fallow last year.”

On wheat, 17 percent of the total area has been planted on fallow, and Mr Lamond said this will tend to buffer the slide in wheat yield potential to some degree.

“It is very difficult to finish off wheat with little or no spring rain and it is the normally more reliable rainfall regions that are suffering the most.

“The lack of finishing rains in September to date, combined with the warm sunny days, has had crops digging deep for residual sub-soil moisture.

“However, moisture reserves are low this year due to below-average growing-season rain for all regions other than the Geraldton port zone.”

Mr Lamond said the top growth has ended up above average due to the very good growing conditions in August and these “topped-up” crops are now using up to 20mm of soil moisture per week to stay alive.

“Without further rain in the next two weeks, the slide in tonnage will continue.”

The barley outlook is brighter, with the very large area planted to it at 1.8Mha in good shape, and ahead of wheat in terms of grain-fill.

“The barley, in general, has had a dream run this year with low levels of disease and the lack of waterlogging in the lower-lying areas where barley is often targeted.

“There has also been no frost to speak of and this has helped to keep tonnage estimates higher than they may have otherwise been.”

Mr Lamond said canola crops in the medium and low-rainfall areas were late to emerge and did not have time to put on the growth necessary to support high grain yields.

“The heat has halted flowering and put a lid on extending potential yield if there is rain in the next few weeks.

“The higher-rainfall zones are in better shape, although they are in line for more longer-term average yields rather than recent higher yields.”

Lupin crops are described as well grown, and with a lot of biomass, but few pods.

“This will be a benefit to following crops next year, but many lupin crops won’t deliver a profit this year.”

Source: GIWA

Further detail on crop conditions in individual WA port zones can be found as part of the full report on the GIWA website.