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Mixed end to season informs Rabo crop estimates

Liz Wells October 22, 2024

Harvesting wheat in Mukinbudin, WA, this week. Photo: Eden Walker via Grain Brokers Australia

WILD CARDS for Australia’s winter-crop harvest are still being thrown out as headers start rolling in all mainland states.

After a South Australian growing season which brought decile one rainfall in the year to date for many, and lowest on record for some, widespread rain and some hail has in recent days fallen on ripening crops.

The story in Victoria is similar, although its in-crop rain has generally been higher, and its growing season started with more subsoil moisture than SA’s.

In central and southern New South Wales, recent rain is further boosting yield prospects, while in the state’s north-west, growers are hoping for a few weeks of dry harvesting weather.

In Queensland, harvest is continuing at pace, although isolated showers and storms have slowed activity on some farms.

Western Australia has been the surprise packet, with the Grain Industry Association of WA adding 890,000 tonnes to its monthly forecast released on Friday for the state’s harvest, now expected to yield 17.75 million tonnes (Mt).

Vitor Pistoia.

Rabobank today released its forecast for major crops now being harvested, and puts the national wheat figure at 27.55Mt, barley at 10.37Mt and canola at 4.67Mt.

The wheat figure reflects expectations held early this month that the lack of September rain in SA, Vic and parts of southern NSW would prevent the national wheat crop from hitting 30Mt, as was hoped for earlier in the season.

Rabo’s estimates factor in the impact of frosts last month which impacted cropping regions in SA, Vic, and the southern half of NSW.

“This cold snap damaged crops to differing degrees and prompted many farmers to cut them for hay, especially in the regions already affected by low rainfall volumes, such as Victoria and South Australia,” RaboResearch analyst Vitor Pistoia said.

“While the wheat harvest is expected to be an improvement on last year, canola and barley production look set to be down year on year due to the combination of low rainfall and late frost which struck many crops at a critical period.”

Rabobank’s estimates released today for Australia’s 2024-25 winter-crop harvest.

Bounce in SA, Vic

Pulse crops are expected to benefit the most from recent mostly storm rain in SA and Vic.

In the week to today, higher registrations in SA included:  Balaklava 39mm; Blyth and Snowtown North 49mm; Buckleboo 14mm; Farrell Flat 36mm; Jamestown 29mm; Meningie 25mm; Paskeville 14mm, Pinnaroo 27mm.

While some grain-growing regions of SA missed this rain, most got a few millimetres.

Platinum Ag agronomist Phil Holmes said most of his clients in SA’s Mid North received at least 25mm, with some getting up to 50mm, and 75mm for a few.

“Later districts that still have green crops have already dropped the tillers that they were going to drop, and what it’s down to now is seed on tillers; they should be well formed as far as cereals go,” Mr Holmes said.

“Peas, beans, lupins will be producing decent-sized seeds; the pods are looking quite full now, whereas before the rain, they were thin.”

Mr Holmes said some canola that was partially frosted at early flowering is filling late pods at the top of the plant.

“Before the rain, I didn’t think they had much hope of being more than a green skeleton.”

Mr Holmes said the wider district’s crops with the lowest grain yield potential have already been cut for hay, or are being grazed out by sheep.

“A lot of people are in a dire situation with livestock, and they need the feed.”

While cutting failed cereals and canola for hay has been done, Mr Holmes estimates only around one quarter of the windrows have been baled.

“Because some heads are still in stems, they need time to cure, and frosted canola takes a while to dry.”

Harvest in the Upper North is expected to start in a fortnight, with some crops being sprayed out now.

Mr Holmes said most cereals will be able to make use of the recent rain to help fill the grains already set in the head, and faba beans, lentils, lupins and field peas will be the ones that may pile on some extra yield through late flowering or extra fuel at grain fill.

“Pulses will be the thing to bring a smile to people’s faces.”

Horsham-bashed Frontier Farming Systems research agronomist Jason Brand said the rain will have benefitted any crops that are still green, which in Vic is the vast majority of them.

“The frosts did a fair whack of damage, and I think you’re going to get a really mixed bag of stories out of this year,” Dr Brand said.

He concurs with Mr Holmes’ opinion that pulses will be the farmers’ friend this year, even though lentil crops are unusually short after limited in-crop rain.

“You only need relatively low yields to break even on lentils.

“Even if you can only strip 300kg/ha, it’s probably worth a crack at $850/t to get your seed back.”

While hail has done some serious damage to cereal and canola crops  in strips of the Vic Wimmera and Mallee, Dr Brand said the recent weather event will have been of benefit to most growers.

“We’re very grateful for the rain; some places in the Mallee nearly doubled their in-crop rainfall in three hours.”

As with the SA experience, most crops with severe frost damage or very low yield potential due to dry conditions had been cut for hay prior to last week, and some lentil crops in early areas have been desiccated.

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