SA’s Mid North is normally a reliable area but lack of rain in the crucial months of the growing season have seen a number of crops grazed out or cut for hay. Photo: Leighton Wilksch

PRIMARY Industries and Regions South Australia has cut its estimate for the state’s winter crop now being harvested to 5.9 million tonnes (Mt), down 23 percent from the previous figure of 7.7Mt based on conditions as of July 15.

The latest PIRSA figures are based on information current as at September 20, and the total forecast for 2024-25 is 35 percent below the five-year average and the lowest total since 5.8Mt was harvested in 2018-19.

Released in the September 2024 South Australian Crop and Pasture Report, PIRSA said the figures reflect well below-average rainfall that continued through winter for all SA cropping regions.

As of September 20, subsoil moisture levels remained low, with many regions at wilting point.

“The outlook for October to December is suggesting an increased chance of exceeding median rainfall for most of South Australia, especially western and northern areas, however the timing of rainfall may
be too late to increase crop yield,” the report said.

Crop performance has been poor in many regions, with yield potential limited by the combination of
late crop emergence, dry winter conditions and early onset of spring.

“This has been followed by recent severe frost events across large grain-producing areas,  with growers just beginning to assess the extent of damage to crops.

“The area of wheat, barley, lentils, vetch and canola to be harvested is expected to reduce due lack of
rainfall and the impact of frost.

“Many of these crops will either be grazed or cut for hay where there is sufficient biomass.”

The report said low levels of stripe rust infections and insect pests have emerged in several regions, and the decision to spray has been strongly influenced by yield potential and the likelihood of financial benefit from that spray.

This will reduce further when the impact of recent frosts are fully understood. Producers still face the risks of further frost events and heat shocks during flowering and grain fill, which may further impact total production.

Table 1: PIRSA 20 September 2024 estimates for the 2024-25 winter-crop harvest.