A crop of wheat grown in the Robertstown district of SA’s eastern Mid North which has received 106mm of rain from January to mid-October, and 40mm in the past week. The crop is expected to yield just over 1t/ha, compared to the district average of 1.5-2t/ha. Photo: Connor Fuss, Nutrien Riverton

THIS month has brought some wild weather to south-eastern Australia, and what it has done to cereal, canola, and pulse yields will be known only once harvest clicks into top gear next month.

Reasonably widespread rain of up to 75mm over last weekend will help green crops fill, and in the case of later pulses, promote further flowering and pod set.

However, the rain-bearing front also brought localised hail and fierce winds to parts of South Australia, and Victoria’s Mallee and Wimmera districts, and has done varying amounts of damage to crops with little to lose after an abnormally dry growing season.

As grain starts to ripen on the outer slopes of southern and south-central New South Wales, damage done by recent frost looks like it has come at a big cost to some growers.

Frost, hail, and rain have all caused forecasters to adjust their NSW, Vic, and SA estimates, while Western Australia got a last-minute reprieve from rain early this month to lift its production prospects.

Via its Global Agricultural Information Network report out this week, the United States Department of Agriculture has cut its forecast for Australia’s 2024-25 wheat production to 28.5 million tonnes (Mt), down 3.5Mt from the 32Mt forecast by its Australian office in July.

USDA’s barley estimate has also been revised down, now sitting at 11Mt, compared with 11.5Mt previously.

“For South Australia and Victoria, below-average rainfall persisted from July to September,” the USDA report said.

“Additionally, parts of South Australia, Victoria, and southern and central New South Wales experienced frost events in mid-to-late September, adversely affecting the crop yield potential.

“Barley was impacted more severely by the frost than wheat, as barley was in the flowering stage during the
event, while wheat tends to flower slightly later.”

In its monthly report out last Friday, the Grain Industry Association of WA lifted its forecast for WA’s wheat crop to 9.9Mt, up from 9.3Mt seen last month, while canola jumped to 2.4Mt from 2.2Mt, and barley sits unchanged at 4.3Mt.

RaboBank and the Commonwealth Bank of Australia both released estimates for Australia’s major winter crops this week, while Australian Crop Forecasters October estimates have seen wheat up 1 per cent over the month, and barley and canola unchanged.

ACF’s wheat figure includes 2pc lifts for both Qld and WA, a 4pc lift for NSW, which jointly have offset cuts of 6pc to SA and 3pc to Vic.

Table 1: Most recent estimates from Australian Crop Forecasters, CBA, Lachstock, Rabo, and USDA. Lachstock figures came out October 3 for barley, October 16 for canola, and last month for wheat.

Octopusbot is an Australian technology startup founded in 2020 which generates AI global forecasts though more than 1500 interconnected models simulating international grain and oilseed markets, and services Australian and offshore growers, brokers, handlers, accumulators, and traders.

In its frost report issued October 15, Octopusbot said wheat and canola yield potential was the most heavily impacted from recent frosts down to -6 degrees Celsius.

Octopusbot ran this data through its local region AI yield models in NSW to quantify the impact of yield reductions.

For anyone interested in observing some of the frost damage around. This is a severe case, but unfortunately common. Lots of 60-80% affected crop too, of all types. 👎 pic.twitter.com/ORM8bGNtRm

— Barry Haskins (@agrobaz) October 22, 2024

The models identified similar-intensity events in 2012, while slightly less severe events occurred in 2017 and 2018 in NSW,

Using historical data from previous frost events, Octopusbot has estimated the impact, and puts losses at 10-30pc for the most severely frosted NSW regions including Cootamundra, Junee, Temora, Wagga Wagga, and Young.

Octopusbot’s models peg both canola and wheat yield losses at 8pc for Vic and 20pc for SA, to reflect the combined result of low rainfall, low soil moisture, and frost.

“Early October rainfall has aided partial crop recovery, potentially improving yields by around 10pc in frost-affected areas,” Octopusbot said in its report, issued prior to last weekend’s rainfall.

The Grain Industry Association of Victoria is expected to release its estimates for Victorian wheat and barley crops in coming days, and the market is expecting them to show less of an impact from frost than initially feared.

However, frost damage as far north as Forbes has taken the shine from slopes and plains country in the southern half of NSW, with affected area and intensity seemingly worse in NSW than initially thought.

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