World wheat crop to lift 5pc: AMIS

Grain Central, May 10, 2019

WORLD wheat production this year is expected to rebound by 5 per cent (pc) from last year’s reduced level, with most of the increase in Australia, the European Union and the Russian Federation according to an Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) market monitor published overnight.

World wheat production (million tonnes). Numbers in italics are world excluding China. Source AMIS

It said the early outlook for the 2019/20 season pointed to “comfortably balanced” markets for wheat, maize and rice. A strong anticipated rebound in wheat production could boost wheat inventory levels, especially among major exporters. The anticipated 3.7pc rise in wheat stock, though still below the record 2017/18 level, would see higher inventory among all major exporters except the US.

Wheat consumption for food would keep pace with overall population growth and feed use would increase by 1.4pc.

Stronger import demand in Asia and Africa would result in a small increase in trade in 2019/20, the Russian Federation expected to retain its position as the world’s largest exporter.

Northern hemisphere wheat crops mostly in good shape

While EU winter wheat conditions are mixed, dry soils impacting crops in southwestern and southeastern Europe, conditions in Ukraine and the Russian Federation are mostly favourable. Russia’s Central and Volga districts are dry.

China’s winter and spring wheat conditions are generally favourable, likewise India.

US winter wheat conditions are mostly favourable with some mild areas of concern in the north and east due to wetter than normal conditions. Spring wheat sowing is beginning under favourable conditions albeit some delays due to excess moisture remaining from heavy snowfall over the winter. In Canada, winter wheat conditions are favourable in the main producing eastern provinces, while dry conditions in the central prairies remain a concern.

Soybeans exceed expectations

As for soybeans AMIS said markets were bracing for current crop 2018/19 supplies to have risen even higher than those anticipated earlier, resulting particularly from improved harvest outcomes in Argentina and Brazil.

Reduced demand in China caused by the outbreak of African swine fever was partly offset by higher crush forecast for Brazil and several other countries.

Source: AMIS




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