A session at ABARES Outlook conference last week examined the future of global agricultural trade with an increased focus on protectionism and a weaker World Trade Organisation.

IN AN era of increased protectionism, a weaker World Trade Organization and political turbulence, Australia needs to find new and creative ways to navigate the agricultural trade environment, the ABARES Outlook 2025 forum heard last week.

Speaking at the Fields of influence: agricultural trade, global giants and protectionism session,  Australian Centre for International Trade and Investment executive director Pru Gordon told the session that recent actions by US President Donald Trump put the world in “unprecedented territory”.

Dr Gordon said she was “blown away” by the “relative positivity” of forecasts from ABARES and commentators, given the “absolutely unprecedented situation in which we find ourselves and in which, I think, we are unprepared”.

She highlighted President Trump’s “fair and reciprocal plan”, announced on February 13, which mandated that US officials identify “any taxes, non-tariff barriers, exchange rate manipulation” and recommend strategies to remedy the perceived imbalance.

Australian Centre for International Trade and Investment executive director Pru Gordon.

“The…plan basically nukes the WTO and the rules-based system,” Dr Gordon said.

Dr Gordon said supporting and working with the private sector was key to navigating these challenges.

“The way government works with the private sector, who are absolutely the coal front, and who are going to be pivotal in terms of Australia and other countries’ ability to weather what is coming, has to radically change.”

“Australia needs to look very closely at how government engages with industry and there almost has to be a new thinking.

“Government has traditionally been petrified of sharing any kind of new information…and I think we need to rethink that.”

Long-term inaction on trade

Session keynote speaker New Zealand Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Trade deputy secretary Vangelis Vitalis said President Trump’s actions were the tipping point of over 20 years of inaction by the international community to make significant steps forward on global trade.

He said the “gradual fragmental” of the international rules-based system had been happening since 2015-16.

“It’s been 10 years since the Nairobi WTO ministerial that last did something on agriculture.

“We have failed at every WTO ministerial to advance the cause of agricultural reform.”

Mr Vitalis said “the golden weather” was “well and truly over”, with the WTO now no longer able to enforce and resolve issues parts of the rules-based trading system.

“We no longer have a functioning appellate body; we don’t have judges to hear cases; the non-discrimination principle really is now under threat.

“That certainty, that transparency that our two countries have depended on is now very much a thing of the past.”

Push to strengthen rules-based system

Mr Vitalis said despite the significant challenges surrounding world trade, he was “optimistic” countries like Australia and New Zealand could find solutions to maintain and strengthen a rules-based trade system.

“We have to deal with the world as it is, not the way we would wish it to be.

“Despite the big challenges out there, our two sectors internationally have been incredibly effective at dealing with these kinds of challenges in the past.

“I am confident we’ll find a way.”

New Zealand Ministry for Foreign Affairs and Trade deputy secretary Trade and Economic, Vangelis Vitalis.

He said as a member of the G20 and a large exporter of agricultural products, Australia had more influence than NZ to make positive changes to the global agricultural trade environment.

“I do believe you have enormous impact, and you have people that do the work that we do that are…world class.

“I do think that there is plenty of scoop to do things, but we may have to do some things differently.

“It may be that in the WTO we’re going to have to think a bit creatively about how we form coalitions around particular subjects, how we try to bring those forward, what other options we’ve got in our side, but always thinking how those options can support the multilateral system.

“We must be very careful that we don’t walk away from it, even inadvertently.”

World Farmers’ Organisation vice president Oceania Fiona Simson said the organisation was working to continue its dialogue with the WTO, as well as promoting agricultural trade collaboration via other methods.

“So obviously engaging with the WTO is tricky…it’s stalled in some ways,” Ms Simson said.

She pointed to the conference of parties (COP) meetings, such as the COP22 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in 2026, as forums to raise issues and form agreements outside of the WTO.

“We’ve got to remember that there are all of these other global conversations all the time as well, and ways that we can encourage collaboration and conversations and perhaps coming to doing it around about a different way.”

Held on March 4 and 5 at Canberra, the ABARES Outlook event brought together influential Australian and international speakers and panellists from industry and government to discuss diverse issues shaping the future of agriculture, fisheries and forestry industries.

Alongside Ms Simson, Dr Gordon and Mr Vitalis the session, also featured commentary:

• Australian Meat Industry Council interim chief executive officer Tim Ryan,
• ABARES director of agricultural trade research James Fell; and,
• Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry deputy secretary trade and regulation group Tina Hutchison.