THE USDA’s September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) have given support to wheat prices, with a 1.7-million-tonne (Mt) production increase in 2017/18 being seen as insufficient to offset a 2.7Mt decrease in beginning stocks.
The primary production increase has come from Russia, up 3.5Mt to a record 81Mt based on excellent growing conditions and updated harvest results.
Offsetting this has been a 1Mt reduction in the forecast for the Australian crop due to dry conditions, and a 700,000t drop in the estimate for EU production.
US 2017/18 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from those issued in last month’s WASDE.
Wheat trade steady
The global wheat trade outlook outlined in this month’s WASDE for 2017/18 is essentially unchanged overall from August.
The September figure includes upward revisions for forecast exports: 1Mt for Russia, 500,000t for Ukraine, and 300,000t for Turkey.
These increases have been partially offset by a 1Mt reduction in estimated EU exports, and a 500,000t drop for Australia.
Total global use is forecast to rise by 500,000t.
With total supplies declining and use increasing, global ending stocks have been lowered by 1.6Mt.
This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased production, greater feed and residual use, higher ending stocks, and lower prices.
The forecast for global 2017/18 coarse grain production has been lifted by 2.4Mt to 1317Mt, with the non-US coarse grain outlook is for greater production, slightly lower consumption, reduced trade, and larger stocks relative to last month.
Non-US corn production is forecast to decline relative to last month with reductions for Serbia, Ukraine, the EU and Russia more than offsetting increases for Argentina and Mexico.
Heat and dryness during August have cut the projected corn yield for Ukraine crops, while in Argentina, corn area has been raised from last month and is now forecast at a record high.
The barley production estimate has been raised for Russia and Canada, but lowered for Argentina and the EU.
US oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 132.8Mt, up 1.9Mt from the August estimate thanks to increased soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production forecasts.
Non-US 2017/18 oilseed production is projected at 445.8Mt, roughly in line with last month’s figure, with reductions for soybeans and rapeseed being offset by gains for cottonseed and sunflowers.
Based on lower reported area, canola production has been reduced for Canada, and cottonseed is raised for India based on the latest government planting data.
Foreign oilseed exports for 2017/18 are reduced this month, mainly on lower soybean shipments from Uruguay, while soybean import forecasts for China and Thailand have been raised to reflect increased US exports.
Foreign oilseed stocks for 2017/18 are projected higher as a 1.5Mt reduction for Brazilian soybean stocks due to a lower carry-in is offset by increased soybean stocks for China, Bolivia, and Argentina, and larger canola stocks in Canada.