Drier April to June likely for southern two-thirds of Australia

APRIL is likely to be drier than average in the central, south and southwest of Australia, but wetter for eastern NSW, southeast Queensland and far northern Australia.

That’s according to the latest Bureau of Meteorology Seasonal Climate Outlook statement, released today.

April to June rainfall is likely to be below average over the southern two-thirds of Australia, except the east coast and most of Tasmania.

Rainfall is likely to be above average for the far north.

Rainfall outlook for April-June 2017. Click to enlarge.

Outlooks are influenced by warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, a cooler than average eastern Indian Ocean, and some cooling of the Coral Sea.

Historical outlook accuracy for April to June is generally moderate to high over most of Australia, but low in Tasmania and small patches across the south. See map for more detail.

Warmer season likely for much of Australia, but cooler for tropical north

Click on maps to enlarge.

Daytime temperatures for April to June are likely to be above average for most of Australia, except parts of eastern and northern Australia.

Night-time temperatures for April to June are also likely to be warmer for most of Australia, except northern WA and the Top End of the NT, where cooler than average nights are more likely. Additionally, southern WA, southern SA, eastern NSW and Cape York Peninsula show roughly equal chances of cooler or warmer April to June nights.

Outlooks are influenced by warming of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler than average eastern Indian Ocean.

Historical maximum temperature accuracy for April to June is moderate to high over most of Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is also moderate to high for most of the country, except parts of southwestern WA, where accuracy is moderate to low.

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

Comparison – previous outlook versus actual rainfall

Scroll between maps below to compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for December ’16 to February ’17, released in late November 2016, with actual rain that fell over the three month period.