Weather

Seasonal climate outlook Aug-Oct 2017

Grain Central, July 27, 2017

 

 

Below-average rainfall likely for most of southern mainland Australia

August to October rainfall is likely to be below average for most of southern mainland Australia, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s latest climate outlook statement released this morning.

August rainfall is very likely to be below average for the southern half of mainland Australia, while Tasmania is likely to be wetter than average.

Daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Chances are highest in northern and southeastern Australia, where there is a greater than 80% chance of warmer than average days and nights.

August is very likely to see warmer days nationwide, with most of the country having a greater than 80% chance of higher than average maximum temperatures.

Both of Australia’s major climate drivers at this time of year, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), remain neutral. This means more localised influences such as moderate shifts in the location and strength of the subtropical ridge, local sea surface temperatures and even soil moisture levels are likely to be affecting this outlook.

Warmer days and nights for most of Australia

July to September daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia, except for southeast WA and western and central SA.

Daytime and overnight temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. For northern and southeastern Australia there is a greater than 80% chance of warmer than average days and nights.
August in particular has a very high likelihood of warmer days nationwide, with most of the country having a greater than 80% chance of warmer than average days.

Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over the southern half of mainland Australia, Queensland, and the Top End of the NT. Elsewhere, accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for northern Australia, parts of SA, northern NSW, and Tasmania, but low elsewhere.

Comparison – previous outlook versus actual rainfall

Scroll between maps below to compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for April to June 2017, released in mid-March 2017, with actual rain that fell over the April to June 2017 period.

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