Feb-Mar 2019 rainfall outlook:

Drier than median three months likely for eastern and western parts of Australia

February to April is likely to be drier than median for most of WA, western parts of the NT and SA, eastern parts of Queensland and NSW, and most of Victoria.

For the remainder of the country, there are roughly equal chances of a wetter or drier three months, i.e., no strong tendency towards a wetter or drier than median season ahead.

Historical outlook accuracy for February to April is moderate across most of mainland Australia and northern Tasmania. However, over southwestern Australia, southern SA, western and central Victoria, and southern Tasmania accuracy is low to very low. See map for more detail.

Chance of exceeding 100mm during Feb-Apr:

Febryary 2019 rainfall outlook:

March 2019 rainfall outlook:

Warmer than median days and nights likely for Australia

February to April days are very likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia. Chances of a warmer three months are greater than 80% over large parts of western and eastern Australia.

February to April nights are also very likely to be warmer than median across most of Australia, with chances of warmer nights exceeding 80% over northern and eastern Australia.

Historical accuracy for February to April maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of Australia, but low in the Top End of the NT, southern SA, southern NSW and Victoria. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate to high for southeast Australia, and patchy areas across northern Australia. Elsewhere accuracy is low to very low.

Minimum temperature outlook:

 

Maximum temperature outlook:

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

 

Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for October to December 2018, issued in September 2018, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the October to December 2018 period.

 

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2018:

 

RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED OCTOBER TO DECEMBER 2018:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

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