Weather

Seasonal climate outlook for May to July 2022

Bureau of Meteorology, April 29, 2022

May to July 2022 Rainfall outlook

 

Above median May to July rainfall likely for most of Australia, except south-west WA and western Tasmania

May to July rainfall is likely to be above median for most areas of Australia (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60pc), with north-western and inland regions very likely to be above median (greater than 80 percent chance). However, the south-west quarter of WA, and western Tasmania have roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding median is close to 50pc).

The May and June outlooks are broadly similar to the three-month outlook, with above median monthly rainfall generally likely away from south-west and south-eastern areas of the country.
It should be noted that May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season. This means tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.

Past accuracy for May to July rainfall is moderate to high for most areas of Australia, with low accuracy for small parts of the northern tropics, far eastern Victoria, and southern Tasmania.

 

June 2022 rainfall outlook:

 

 

‘First look’ June to August 2022 rainfall outlook

Temperature outlook

Warmer May to July days for north, and far south-west and south-east, cooler for inland central and southern Australia

May to July maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for the northern tropics, south-west WA, south-east NSW, southern and eastern Victoria and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Below median maximum temperatures are likely for much of central WA, the southern NT, SA, southern Queensland, inland NSW, and northern Victoria (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40pc).

There is an increased chance of unusually high maximum temperatures (in the top 20pc of historical records) for May to July over the far south-west and northern WA, the northern NT, northern Queensland, eastern Victoria, and Tasmania (1.5 to greater than 4.0 times the usual chance), with the highest chances in far northern Queensland. Conversely, there is an increased chance of unusually low maximum temperatures (in the bottom 20pc of historical records) in a broad area stretching from the Pilbara coast in WA, across SA and the southern NT and into western and central parts of southern Queensland, NSW and Victoria (1.5 to 3.5 times the usual chance).

Minimum temperatures for May to July are likely to be warmer than median Australia wide (chances are greater than 60pc), with most areas very likely to be warmer (chances are greater than 80pc).

There is an increased chance of unusually high minimum temperatures (in the top 20pc of historical records) for May to July across virtually all of Australia (1.5 to greater than 4.0 times the usual chance). The highest likelihoods are across the northern tropics and north-eastern SA extending into the southern NT.

Past accuracy for May to July maximum temperatures is high to very high for most areas of Australia, with moderate accuracy across the south-east NT and northern Tasmania. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high to very high across northern Australia, grading to low to very low accuracy across southern parts of the mainland. Tasmania has moderate accuracy for minimum temperature.

Maximum temperature May to July

 

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology.

To view more outlook maps for coming weeks and months click here

Previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for January to March 2022, issued 30 December 2021, with actual rainfall recorded over the January to March 2022 period.

Forecast median rainfall January to March 2022:

 

 

Actual rainfall recorded January to March 2022:

 

 

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

 

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