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Seasonal climate outlook Jan-Mar 2018

by Grain Central, 21 December 2017

Above-average rainfall likely for parts of eastern and western Australia

 

The January to March rainfall outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology this morning shows parts of eastern and western Australia are likely to have a wetter than average three months.

January is likely to be wetter than average for WA, eastern NSW and southeast Queensland.

La Niña conditions are present in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This event is forecast to be short lived and weaker than the previous La Niña in 2010-12. See the Climate Influences section for more information.

January to March daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for parts of eastern and western Australia, but warmer than average for the far southwest and southeast.

January 2018 rainfall outlook:

February 2018 rainfall outlook:

Cooler start to 2018 for east and west

January to March daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to be cooler than average for large parts of eastern and western Australia, but warmer than average for the southeast and southwest. There is a greater than 80% chance of warmer January to March days and nights in Tasmania and southern Victoria.

January is likely to be warmer than average for southeast and southwest Australia, and the Top End of the NT.

Historical accuracy for maximum temperatures is moderate over most of Australia, except eastern SA, where accuracy is low. Minimum temperature accuracy is patchy, with moderate accuracy across eastern Australia, the Top End of the NT and northern WA.

Minimum temperature outlook:

 

Maximum temperature outlook:

 

Comparison – previous outlook versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for September to November 2017, issed on August 31, 2017, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the September to November 2017 period.

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL SEP-NOV 2017:

 

RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED SEP-NOV 2017:

 

Scroll between images below:

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