Weather

Seasonal climate outlook May-July 2019

Bureau of Meteorology, April 26, 2019

Click on image above to watch a video presentation of the rainfall and water outlook for the next three months

May-July 2019 rainfall outlook:

Drier May in the east, wetter May–July for western and central Australia

May is likely to be drier than average in eastern SA, Victoria, northern and eastern Tasmania, and both NSW and southern Queensland to the west of the Great Dividing Range. Conversely, much of Far North Queensland’s east coast and Arnhem Land in the NT are likely to have a wetter than average month.

While May is likely to be drier, the three months from May to July show most of eastern and southern Australia have no strong tendency towards above or below average rainfall. A wetter than average three months is likely for large parts of northwestern and central Australia, but many of these areas typically receive little or no rainfall at this time of the year, meaning only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.

Historical outlook accuracy for May to July is moderate to high for most of the country but low across southeast Queensland and northern NSW, and southern SA.

 

May 2019 rainfall outlook:

June 2019 rainfall outlook:

Temperature: Warmer than average days and nights likely for most of Australia

Warmer than average days are likely for most of Australia for May to July, except in the southwest. For northern and eastern Australia, the chances of being warmer than average are very high; greater than 80%.

Nights are also likely to be warmer than average overall, however, the forecast for drier than average conditions could bring more cloud-free nights, increasing the risk of frost in susceptible areas.

Historical accuracy for May to July maximum temperatures is moderate to high across most of Australia. Minimum temperature accuracy is moderate for the northern half of the country and Tasmania, and low to very low elsewhere.

Minimum temperature outlook:

Maximum temperature outlook:

Source: BOM

Comparison – previous forecast versus actual rainfall

Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for January to March 2019, issued in December 2018, with actual rainfall deciles recorded over the January to March 201 period.

FORECAST MEDIAN RAINFALL JANUARY TO MARCH 2019:

 

RAINFALL DECILES RECORDED JANUARY to MARCH 2019:

Source: Bureau of Meteorology

 

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