Wetter end to 2021 for most of Australia
October to December rainfall is likely to be above median for most areas of Australia (chance of exceeding median is greater than 60%). Much of the south-east mainland shows a greater than 80% chance of above median rainfall. However, much of the northern half of WA has roughly equal chances of above or below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%), while western Tasmania is likely to have below median rainfall (chance of exceeding the median is less than 40%).
October rainfall is likely to be above median for the eastern two-thirds of Australia, with western Tasmania likely to be below median. The outlook for November rainfall has a similar pattern to the three-month outlook, although the likelihood of above median rainfall isn’t as high.
Rainfall for November to January is also likely to be above median for most areas, although central WA and the Top End of the NT have roughly equal chances or above or below median rainfall, with south-west Tasmania likely to be below median.
Past accuracy for October to December rainfall is high to very high for most of northern and eastern Australia, extending into SA, with moderate accuracy for southern parts of WA, shifting to low accuracy for central parts of both WA and the NT.
October 2021 rainfall outlook:
November 2021 rainfall outlook:
‘First look’ November 2021 – January 2022
Warmer October to December days likely for far north, west and far south-east, cooler days for elsewhere in the south and eastern Australia
October to December maximum temperatures are likely to be above median for the far north of Australia extending down western WA, southern Victoria extending just over the SA and NSW borders, and Tasmania (greater than 60% chance). Below median daytime temperatures are more likely for southern WA, most of SA, southern Queensland, and northern and eastern NSW (chance of exceeding the median is 30 to 40%).
In October and November, the pattern for maximum temperatures is similar to the three months, although the area of cooler days across the east is smaller in November.
Minimum temperatures for October to December are likely to be warmer than median for most of Australia (chances are greater than 60%). However, south-eastern WA has roughly equal chances of above or below median overnight temperatures (chance of exceeding the median is close to 50%).
Likewise, minimum temperatures for October and November are likely to be above median for most areas, although October has roughly equal chances of above or below median overnight temperatures for most of WA, southern SA and south-east Queensland.
Past accuracy for October to December maximum temperatures is high to very high for almost all of Australia. For minimum temperatures, accuracy is high across the far north, and the southern half of the country, with moderate accuracy for most of Queensland extending into the eastern NT, with low accuracy for far northern WA, extending into the central and southern parts of the NT.
Minimum temperature outlook Nov to Jan 2021:
Maximum temperature outlook Nov to Jan 2021:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology.
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Previous forecast versus actual rainfall
Maps below compare BOM’s rainfall forecast for July to September 2021, issued 24 June 2021, with actual rainfall recorded over the July to September 2021 period.
Forecast median rainfall July to September 2021:
Actual rainfall recorded July to September 2021:
Source: Bureau of Meteorology